DeepSeek 给出了对寒武纪、摩尔线程、沐曦的投资建议

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2025/12/23

文 | 最话FunTalk，作者 | 何伊然，编辑 | 刘宇翔一个有趣的问题是：如果AI 有泡沫，为什么不卖出288倍PE的寒武纪，卖出亏损的摩尔线程、沐曦，买入44 倍PE 的英伟达？如果AI 没有泡沫，为什么放着44倍PE的英伟达不买，而去追高288倍PE的寒武纪、亏损的摩尔线程和沐曦？当我把问题抛给DeepSeek，善于拍马屁的它直呼，这确实是一个“灵魂拷问”，并给出了它的看法：答案并非简单...

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认为如果你相信“国运”，能承受高风险但也追求高收益，就押注国产头部芯片公司，但需要极大的耐心和信念，以及设好止损线。它对AI产业格局的终极判断是：全球市场最终会由英伟达、AMD等少数几家巨头主导；世界将形成中美两套独立的科技体系，中国市场上会诞生自己的“英伟达”。因此它给出了一个可能的平衡策略，将投资AI的资金分为两部分：大部分（如70%）配置于像英伟达这样的全球龙头，作为核心持仓，分享行业发展的确定性红利；小部分（如30%）作为一种“风险投资”，配置于有潜力的国产AI芯片公司，博取更高的回报。这样既不错过国产替代的历史性机遇，又控制了整体风险。坦率说，当DeepSeek 给出这些分析以及建议时，我觉得AI 并没有泡沫或者说AI的进化值得期待，在AI 领域投再多的投入都值得。这是场看不见硝烟的军备竞赛，赢家通吃，输家则彻底出局。这也是“胆小鬼的游戏”，谁也不敢先认输，起码英伟达的黄仁勋没有。他在近期一次内部交流会上预测：到2027 年，仅英伟达自己供应的GPU 集群将消耗全球150-200GW 电力，相当于1.5-2个法国全国用电量——这还只是算力需求的冰山一角，电力缺口已成为AI 发展的终极瓶颈。他表示，如果电力问题无法解决，所有先进的芯片、强大的模型都只是“无法启动的空壳”，AI革命会直接卡在能源这一层。为此，英伟达将以“800V 架构为核心、多能源协同为支撑、生态投资为纽带”，构建“算力-能源”闭环。面对英伟达的宏大布局，国产GPU 产业链显然也不会坐以待毙。0112月，美国《时代》杂志宣布“人工智能的建造者”当选2025年度人物。或许是为了扣合“建造者”表述，杂志封面特意模仿1932年美国大兴土木建设时期的工人经典照片，让包括黄仁勋、山姆·奥尔特曼、埃隆·马斯克在内的科技公司掌舵人在纽约上空高高悬挂的钢梁上并排而坐。某种程度上，这样的构图也在迎合市场的焦虑——AI是新时代的基建，但处在充满不确定性的波动期。自ChatGPT横空出世以来，各行各业都因人工智能的融入迎来了翻天覆地的变化，所有人都清楚一个充满机遇的AI时代正在降临。2025年,由OpenAI主导的5000亿美元“星际之门”计划打头阵，全球科技巨头在AI基础设施领域的竞赛进入白热化阶段。摩根士丹利表示，美股“七巨头”在今年的资本支出已达到4000亿美元，远超原计划的2500亿美元。狂飙的资本支出让手握充足现金流的巨头们也撑不住了，纷纷向外部寻求资金支援。根据美国银行报告，谷歌、Meta、亚马逊、微软和甲骨文今年累计发行约1210亿美元债券用于AI数据中心建设。在一个蓬勃发展的行业，市场乐于见到处在行业浪潮顶峰的人保持积极进取的冲劲。不过，凡事也都讲究过犹不及，从业者的冲劲超过了大众认知，外界更会担心其中的“陷阱”——硅谷巨头近年来用盈利支撑增长的模式会被AI打破。相比前两年生怕错过机会的“一拥而上”，资本在多次教训中变得更加谨慎了。第三方统计显示，2025年全球AI初创企业融资额同比下降32%，9月，OpenAI与英伟达、甲骨文、软银等合作者通过复杂的融资结构用“循环收入”的办法让甲骨文拿出了一份非常漂亮的财报，带动公司股价以创纪录的涨幅刷新历史新高。此后，甲骨文股价便因交易细节被曝光而一路走低。甲骨文重要合作者Blue Owl Capital已经退出了位于密歇根州的数据中心项目，撤资总额约为100亿美元。此外，由于劳动力和材料短缺,甲骨文与OpenAI合作的数据中心建设也从2027年推迟到了2028年。甲骨文对此断然否认，宣称“所有里程碑仍按计划推进”。然而美国证券交易委员会文件显示，截至11月，甲骨文总负债额超过1240亿美元。以做空安然闻名的大空头吉姆·查诺斯在12月直接嘲讽甲骨文正逼近财务承压区间，“如果用新增营业利润除以新增投入资本来计算，甲骨文的回报率只有8.5%，微软接近40%。”伴随“AI泡沫论”愈演愈烈的焦虑，甲骨文市值在短短三个月时间近乎腰斩，堪称是AI行业此轮波动的最大输家。近期，OpenAI寻求新一轮1000亿美元融资的消息在甚嚣尘上，几乎坐实了现有“循环交易”的资金存在问题。OpenAI要是无法付款，甲骨文数据中心形成不了正向收益，即便建成也只能算沉重无比的负资产。千亿美元到位了，相关方才能递延收益。只不过，这笔资金又会是谁出呢？02但从AI热潮中获得了最大好处的黄仁勋，并不在意近期市场泼出的“冷水”。他在采访中表示：“有人认为，全球GDP被某种力量限制在100万亿美元。人工智能将推动这个数字从100万亿增长到500万亿。”黄仁勋的底气来自于英伟达的财报远比甲骨文的“空头支票”扎实。2025年第三季度，英伟达AI芯片业务凭借技术壁垒将毛利率保持在78%的高位，全球九成以上的AI训练算力依赖其芯片。基于世界银行现价美元数据，全球在2000年的GDP为33.62万亿美元，2024年增长到111.33万亿美元。计算下来，25年间全球GDP名义复合增长率约4.9%。要知道，在这四分之一个世纪里，硅谷经历了互联网泡沫破灭后的涅槃重生，个人电脑和智能手机走进了千家万户，人类社会的交流方式迎来了颠覆改变。要用另一个25年的时间达到黄仁勋宣称的500万亿美元全球GDP，那么从今年到2050年，全球GDP年均复合增长率需达到5.3%。从历史经验来说，只靠单一领域的爆发是做不到的。更何况，在千禧年活跃的科技企业，许多并没有熬过移动互联周期。AI行业当前最大的困境是讲了很多改变世界的故事，却找不到稳定可量化的“商业价值”，一些豪言壮语即便说不上是海市蜃楼，也近乎虚无缥缈。举个简单的例子，AI行业常常将“互联网泡沫”“iPhone时刻”挂在嘴边，这说明从业者也认为AI还没有迎来能够媲美PC时代或移动互联时代的质变。第三方统计显示，80%部署AI的企业没有实现净利润的提升。AI带来的效率提升与生产力解放仍停留在“演示”阶段。找不出合理的商业模式，奥尔特曼为代表的从业者转而把解决变现困境的方向挪到产业的上游，一再强调实现通用人工智能必须仰仗算力规模的指数级扩张，硬生生不让外界在意当前的商业难题，而是要去思考AI时代到来后的国际“装备竞赛”，反复突出兴建AI基础设施对主导未来世界话语权的重要性。据知情人士透露，按照最新融资计划，尚未盈利的OpenAI已将自身估值提升到8300亿美元。在今年初，这个数字还是3000亿美元。过去一年，OpenAI对用户需求缺乏洞察的劣势明显暴露，几次研发策略调整都明显偏离了市场偏好，让拥有产品矩阵优势的谷歌AI迎来了强势复苏。随着谷歌把AI对话框直接嵌入浏览器和搜索框，就连“ChatGPT将替代搜索引擎”的声音都近乎消失了。2025年，OpenAI原本设定的目标是周活跃用户数突破10亿人次，当前尚不足9亿，增速大幅回退。换言之，OpenAI的估值增长跟应用表现毫无关系，靠的全是“星际之门”描绘的宏伟愿景。科技行业是个“造梦工厂”，某种程度上是个预期自我实现的行业，面对市场的担忧，最聪明的科技领导者们当然不能露怯，唯有不断鼓吹愿景，以重新获得资本的支持与信任，游戏才能继续。03当AI产业将重心转向基建之后，行业的存在逻辑正在经历剧烈的转型。AI独角兽在很长一段时间被认为是轻资产公司，日常运营最大的开销是人力成本，给从世界各地涌入硅谷的“最强大脑”支付优厚的薪资待遇，而数据中心建设直接把AI产业从脑力竞赛搞成了工业竞赛。不可否认，美国拥有全世界都羡慕的人才优势，可是当AI从思维世界的软件比拼变成物理世界的基建比拼，硅谷无疑是在暴露自身的短板。特朗普愿意为“星际之门”站台，是因为OpenAI为他描绘了一个青史留名的愿景——他会是主导AI时代“曼哈顿计划”的美国总统。按照规划，“星际之门”可以在美国创造10万个劳动岗位，用科技行业的资金帮助修复美国工业产业空心化。可是在一个全球化时代，将AI数据中心布局美国本土完全背离商业经营的原则，不仅效率变低，成本也会变高。黄仁勋在活动中打了一个比方，如果把AI看作是“五层蛋糕”，能源是最底层的基石。AI数据中心的用电密度比传统数据中心高10倍，一个AI训练集群相当于一座10万人口小城市的用电量。据第三方估计，美国数据中心每兆瓦建设成本高达1000-1500万美元，电费将占运营成本的40%。目前，美国电网平均使用年限已经达到40年，由于联邦和各州政府政策不一，电路建设审批复杂，电网承载能力严重不足。摩根史坦利认为，2025年到2028年，美国电力缺口将达到47吉瓦，相当于44座标准核电站的发电量。常年打着捍卫美国工薪阶层旗帜的民主党参议院桑德斯疯狂抨击AI已经侵占了美国5%的电力，大幅推高了用电成本，损害普通民众的利益。“AI数据中心建设不是进步，是亿万富翁的财富掠夺！”尽管特朗普政府正在推动监管机构将数据中心接入电网的审批用时，从5年压缩到60天，但成效甚微。12月，有媒体做专题报道，用事实数据论证拥有全球最大电网的中国有可能凭借能源优势在AI基建竞争中后发制人。2024年，中国的发电量是美国的2倍，中国的工业电费不到美国的一半。这篇报道气得特朗普在社交媒体连发数条推文怒喷，还信誓旦旦地写道：“我们有充足的天然气、清洁煤炭，电力供应绰绰有余！”情绪解决不了实际的问题。虽然科技巨头纷纷牵手能源企业，尝试用小型核反应堆、地热、分布储能的方式缓解，可是电力作为模式成熟的传统行业，确实做不到AI那样日新月异。美国凭借深厚的人才积累和技术优势吹响了进军AI时代的号角，而工业空心化又让AI领域所畅想的“创新驱动基建，基建支撑霸权”逻辑难以闭环。因此，黄仁勋给出了自己的解决方案，他向台下约25 家电力领域顶级初创公司（多数为英伟达投资组合公司）CEO 们喊话，这些企业涵盖液冷、固态变压器、燃料电池、现场制氢、微网、储能等方向。这场面确实宛如19世纪美国工业革命时，卡耐基重整钢铁行业、范德比尔特建设铁路网。他们都曾给市场画了巨大的饼，疯狂举债，但一起推动了美国的工业大发展，催生了现代市场经济体系，为美国工业产值、GDP 世界第一打下了基础。如今美国的焦虑并非只来自于AI 是否有泡沫，对于习惯了第一的美国人，如果无法保持绝对霸主地位，就意味着会走向失败。因此，他们会继续执着于AI 的宏大叙事。即使微观层面各种扰动会引发股价波动，乃至甲骨文股价这样的腰斩，但只要“AI=霸权”的宏大叙事不灭，那么，重新点燃市场的亢奋情绪，只需要一个超预期的新模型、新突破。从这个角度来说，倒不是黄仁勋多想做AI 时代的卡耐基、范德比尔特、摩根，而是美国需要这么个人，维护“美国第一”的地位。而要摧毁这个目标，我国也需要有自己的英伟达，承担这一重任的就是国产GPU 厂商。这是DeepSeek 给出的建议的逻辑原点。更多精彩内容，关注钛媒体微信号（ID：taimeiti），或者下载钛媒体App","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}