Jan 12 (Reuters) - Moderna MRNA.O said on Monday it expects to report around $1.9  billion in sales for 2025, putting it near the upper end of its previously projected $1.6  billion to $2  billion forecast but well below revenue levels achieved during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Moderna shares rose 3% on the news.

Moderna Chief Financial Officer James Mock said in an interview that U.S. vaccination rates in the retail sector fell by roughly 26% year-over-year in 2025. That decline, at the lower end of the company's projected 20% to 40% drop, ultimately led to higher sales, he said.

The vaccine maker, which is set to present on Monday at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco, also cut $200 million from its 2025 operating-expense forecast, lowering the range to $5.0  billion to $5.2  billion.

Moderna said it expects to end the year with $8.1 billion in cash, up from its prior forecast of $6.5 billion to $7.0 billion. The total includes $600 million from a five-year, $1.5 billion loan secured in November from Ares Management ARES.N.

The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based drugmaker has been struggling financially as demand for COVID vaccines collapsed in the years following its pandemic windfall, when Moderna reported revenue of $18.4  billion in 2022. Despite the plunge in sales, the company now sees signs of stabilization.

On Monday, the company reiterated its 2026 goal of achieving up to 10% revenue growth and said it anticipates regulatory approvals this year for both a standalone influenza vaccine and its COVID‑flu combination shot - launches it hopes will eventually replace some of the lost COVID vaccine revenue.

"If we're at $1.9 billion for 2025, up to 10% would be $2.1 billion, although we're not guiding that officially right now," said Mock.

Moderna does not expect its flu or combination shots to be approved in time for the 2026 respiratory‑disease season but sees them providing a boost in 2027.

Moderna said it also expects important trial data in 2026 for experimental oncology, rare disease and infectious disease vaccines. That includes late‑stage results for its norovirus shot and mid‑stage data for the cancer vaccine co-developed with Merck MRK.N being tested in melanoma following surgery.

The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full 2025 results on February 13.