By Mackenzie Tatananni

How do you prepare for a future that's already here?

Interest in quantum computing, which has the potential to be the next disruptive technology, reached a fever pitch last year, punctuated by headlines about developments in error correction and scaling. Still, its impact on traditional compute remains to be seen, UBS analysts wrote on Tuesday.

"In the same way that AI has created concerns of disruption risk to many incumbents in software, we believe quantum will do the same," the firm said. But this risk is difficult to quantify. Analysts presented several possible scenarios for adoption, including a world where the technology falls short of investors' lofty expectations.

In one scenario, quantum is embraced across the pharmaceutical and financial industries, two areas where it is said to show promise, and tapped to expedite the training of artificial-intelligence models. Ultra-powerful quantum processors will do much of the heavy lifting in hybrid systems, which combine classical and quantum computing. This, in turn, could hurt classical compute demand.

Alternatively, enterprises may rush to adopt less sophisticated quantum systems for fear of losing their competitive edge, with a focus on hybrid systems where classical computers do most of the work. UBS expects this scenario to have an aggregate positive impact on traditional compute.

Then there's the possibility that quantum computers don't catch on, as their capabilities haven't advanced enough to justify large-scale spending on the technology. Similarly, enterprises may be reluctant to adopt quantum given their existing investments in traditional compute.

It may be too early to tell which approach to quantum computing is most effective, but UBS is betting on the superconducting and trapped-ion systems developed by International Business Machines and Alphabet as well as smaller pure plays Rigetti Computing, IonQ, and Honeywell-owned Quantinuum.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com

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January 13, 2026 13:05 ET (18:05 GMT)

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