By Adam Clark

When Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reports fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, investors will be watching for the company's comments on revenue and capital expenditure for clarity on where the boom in artificial-intelligence processors goes from here.

TSMC is expected to report a net profit of 469.13 billion New Taiwan dollars ($14.86 billion), according to a FactSet poll of analysts' estimates, up 25% from the same period a year ago.

The Taiwanese chip manufacturer releases monthly revenue figures, which makes it easier for investors to calculate fourth-quarter revenue. According to those monthly numbers, revenue in the quarter rose 20% to NT$1.046 trillion, or $33.13 billion.

TSMC is the main supplier of chips to Nvidia, the leader in semiconductors used for AI applications. TSMC also makes the core processors inside Apple iPhones, Qualcomm mobile chipsets, and processors made by Advanced Micro Devices.

AI is driving the company's revenue growth. TSMC's guidance for the current quarter is a focus, specifically whether the firm can continue its record run of profits.

Previously, TSMC said that it expects revenue for 2025 to rise in the middle of 30%-40% in U.S. dollar terms. Wall Street is bracing for a more cautious outlook when it comes to this year. Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini warned that TSMC might give an outlook for 2026 revenue growth in the range of 25% to 30%. The consensus estimate is for 30% growth.

Another hot topic will be TSMC's expansion in the U.S. The chip maker has pledged a total of $165 billion in American investment, including building three new semiconductor plants. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that TSMC could increase that amount as a part of a trade deal between the U.S. and Taiwan and build up to a dozen plants in Arizona.

That could push TSMC's capital expenditure higher. TSMC is on track to invest more than $50 billion in capex this year, up from around $40 billion in 2025, according to analysts at Fubon Research. Its previous record capex was $36 billion in 2022.

TSMC's American depositary receipts rose 60% over the past 12 months, which includes a 20% gain in the past month.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com

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January 14, 2026 11:22 ET (16:22 GMT)

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