Vail Resorts' (MTN) recent data on skier visits from the start of the ski season through Jan. 4 was steeper than expectations, with the company witnessing snowfall below historical averages, UBS said in a Thursday note.

Fiscal 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization expectations had already moved lower and Vail Resorts is now guiding EBITDA to be below the low end of the guidance range of $842 million to $898 million, which sits below the brokerage's $865 million and Wall Street's $859 million expectation, UBS said.

Interestingly, Vail Resorts' overall lift revenue declined only 1.8% even as visitations declined 20%, UBS said, adding that this highlights benefits of the company's advance commitment strategy.

UBS added that it is more cautious on the company's fundamentals, beyond the current challenging ski season, highlighting that underlying labor cost inflation more than offsets Vail Resorts' cost saving efforts.

The firm rated Vail Resorts as neutral with a $169 price target.

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