Aurizon Holdings (ASX:AZJ) Valuation Check After Buy-Back And Lapsed Performance Rights

Simply Wall St.

01/17

AdvertisementWhy Aurizon’s latest buy-back and lapsed performance rights matter Aurizon Holdings (ASX:AZJ) has cancelled more than 36 million ordinary shares through an on-market buy-back, while a ...

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See our latest analysis for Aurizon Holdings. The buy-back and lapsed performance rights come after a steady 90-day share price return of 7.76% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 15.59%. The current A$3.61 share price leaves year to date share price gains modest, suggesting that recent momentum is building more in total returns than in short term price moves. If Aurizon’s capital management has your attention, it might be a good moment to broaden your watchlist and check out auto manufacturers as another set of transport focused ideas to review alongside rail freight. With buy-backs shrinking the share count, performance rights lapsing and total returns outpacing recent price moves, the real question is whether Aurizon still trades at a discount or if the market is already pricing in future growth. Most Popular Narrative: 6.1% Overvalued The most followed narrative currently sees Aurizon’s fair value at A$3.40 against a last close of A$3.61, framing the recent buy-back in the context of modest overvaluation rather than deep value. The analysts have a consensus price target of A$3.404 for Aurizon Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of A$4.4, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just A$2.89. Read the complete narrative. Want to see what is behind that split view? Revenue growth, margin improvement and a future P/E assumption all sit at the core of this narrative. Based on this narrative, analysts apply a discount rate of 9.57% to Aurizon’s projected cash flows and earnings stream, then arrive at a fair value estimate of about A$3.40 per share. That view builds in ongoing revenue growth, higher profit margins and a future P/E that remains above the current sector level, while also factoring in a gradual reduction in the share count over the next few years. Result: Fair Value of A$3.40 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, coal exposure and rising carbon compliance costs could still pressure earnings and cash flows, especially if bulk and containerised freight underperform expectations for an extended period. Find out about the key risks to this Aurizon Holdings narrative. Another View: SWS DCF Suggests a Different Price Story While the most popular narrative sees Aurizon as modestly overvalued, our DCF model points the other way. On those assumptions, A$3.61 is around 4.7% below an estimated fair value of A$3.79. This suggests a smaller margin of error than the narrative implies. Which set of expectations do you think is more realistic? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. AZJ Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Aurizon Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 863 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Aurizon Holdings Narrative If you are not on board with these assumptions or prefer to crunch the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes. Start with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Aurizon Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Ready for more investment ideas? If you only stop at Aurizon, you could miss other opportunities that fit your style, so take a few minutes to scan these focused idea lists today.  Target income potential by checking out these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that prioritise reliable cash returns over hype. Back future growth themes by running through these 24 AI penny stocks that sit at the intersection of technology and real world use cases. Hunt for value opportunities using these 863 undervalued stocks based on cash flows where current prices sit below cash flow based estimates.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}