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Q4 US PROFIT GROWTH SEEN UP SLIGHTLY VS WK AGO AFTER BANKS REPORT

Year-over-year U.S. estimated earnings growth for the fourth quarter is up just slightly from last week after a mixed bag of results from major banks and some other companies that kicked off the reporting period this week.

With results in from 33 of the S&P 500 .SPX companies as of Friday, earnings growth is now seen at 9.0% for the quarter, up from 8.8% a week ago, according to LSEG.

The data also shows that the vast majority of earnings reports - 84.8% - so far are exceeding analysts' expectations. Over the past four quarters, 78% of companies have beaten analysts' estimates and 16% have missed, based on LSEG data.

Earnings growth for all of 2025 is now seen at 13.3%, up from 10.8% on October 1.

Among this week's disappointments, Wells Fargo WFC.N missed fourth-quarter profit expectations and its shares dropped. On Thursday, both Goldman Sachs GS.N and Morgan Stanley MS.N reported upbeat results, including a rise in quarterly profit. Overall, Wall Street's largest banks ended undefined 2025 on a strong note and executives were positive about 2026.

Estimated year-over-year fourth-quarter earnings growth for financials .SPSY as a group is now at 9.2%, up from 6.8% a week ago.

Next week brings results from a more diverse set of U.S. companies including Netflix NFLX.O, 3M MMM.N, Travelers TRV.N and Procter & Gamble PG.N.

UBS strategist Sean Simonds notes in a report Friday that "the 6 largest TECH+ companies are expected to outgrow the rest of the market as a group... though forecasts vary for each company."

(Caroline Valetkevitch)

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