MW 3M says how much Trump's new tariff threat could cost this year, and the stock dives

By Tomi Kilgore

Post-it Notes maker's earnings beat expectations, but the outlook is clouded as tariff concerns return to the forefront

3M's stock drops as President Trump's new tariff threat raises uncertainties over the full-year outlook, at a time the consumer business continues to struggle.

Shares of 3M took a dive Tuesday, as the Post-it Notes, Scotch tape and Command strips maker, as concerns about tariffs, and how they might affect the already struggling consumer business, were once again on investors minds.

It certainly didn't help that 3M's earnings report, which actually beat Wall Street expectations, was released on a bad day for the overall stock market, after President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on European countries, as part of his Greenland strategy. Still, 3M's stock $(MMM)$ stood out, as the biggest decliner in both the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and the S&P 500 index SPX.

3M had provided a 2026 earnings outlook that was in line with expectations, but indicated that could change depending on whether the new tariffs are put in place. Chief Executive Bill Brown said on the post-earnings call with analysts that current guidance includes the carryover of last year's tariff impact.

That could change, Brown said, according to an AlphaSense transcript, because President Trump is now talking about new tariffs, which could include 10% tariffs on eight countries in February and another 25% midyear.

He explained that 3M is a next exporter to Europe, with exports of about $700 million a year and imports of about $250 million, so the new tariffs could be a "$30 million, $40 million impact" on 2026 results.

"But again, we're a long way from that becoming an executive order. So we'll see," Brown said. "We're watching it as everybody else is. That is not yet in our guidance."

The stock sank 7.9% in recent midday trading toward a three-month low, which put it on track for its biggest one-day decline since it shed 9.2% on April 4, 2025.

The return of the tariff narrative comes at a time that the consumer business continues to struggle. Fourth-quarter sales for that business fell 1.2% from a year ago, to $1.21 billion from $1.23 billion, while the average analyst estimate compiled by FactSet was for an increase to $1.25 billion. That marked the fifth straight quarter that consumer sales missed expectations, even as overall sales have beat forecasts for eight straight quarters.

Chief Financial Officer Anurag Maheshwari said results were worse than expected, as "weaker consumer sentiment and sluggish retail traffic in the U.S." resulted in lower sales trends on discretionary categories.

Meanwhile, 3M reported fourth-quarter net income that fell 20.7% to $577 million. But adjusted earnings per share, which excludes nonrecurring items such as costs related to litigation and forever-chemicals products, rose to $1.83 from $1.68, and exceeded the FactSet EPS consensus of $1.80.

Net sales grew 2% to $6.13 billion, above the FactSet consensus of $6.01 billion, as the company said it managed to outperform despite a "soft" macroeconomic environment.

Among 3M's other business segments, safety and industrial revenue increased 6% to $2.87 billion in the fourth quarter, just above expectations of $2.85 billion, and transportation and electronics revenue declined 1.7% to $1.96 billion but topped expectations of $1.86 billion.

For 2026, the company expects adjusted EPS of $8.50 to $8.70, which surrounds the current FactSet consensus of $8.64. For sales, 3M expects growth of about 4%, while the FactSet consensus of $25.01 billion implies 2.6% growth.

-Tomi Kilgore

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January 20, 2026 12:44 ET (17:44 GMT)

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