MW AST SpaceMobile's stock is on a roll. This key factor could make or break its momentum.

By William Gavin

The company needs to launch dozens of satellites this year to compete with its biggest rival, Starlink

AST SpaceMobile shares have surged more than 400% over the last 12 months.

AST SpaceMobile has made solid progress in setting the foundation for its space-based cellular network. But if the company wants to compete with SpaceX's Starlink, it needs to launch dozens of satellites this year.

"The next step in realizing future success ... is executing the company's satellite build and launch plan in order to enable a 24-hour continuous commercial service," Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft wrote in a Tuesday note to investors.

That's set to be the "key" driver of AST SpaceMobile's (ASTS) stock in 2026, according to Kraft. Shares are already up 62% so far this year, and the company plans to accomplish five satellite launches by the end of March.

As of Tuesday, the company will need to complete four launches over roughly 10 weeks to meet that goal. Last month, AST SpaceMobile launched its first next-generation satellite, which is expected to support 10 times the data capacity of its prior satellites.

Chief Strategy Officer Scott Wisniewski said in December that AST SpaceMobile has planned a launch "every month or two," each of which would involve sending between six and eight satellites to orbit.

"That will get us to our goal of 45 to 60 satellites in order to offer commercial-grade service continuously in the United States, Europe, and other markets that matter around the world," Wisniewski said at a UBS event, according to a transcript.

Kraft rates the stock at "buy," and he raised his price target for AST SpaceMobile's stock to $137 from $81, implying about 18% upside from current levels. About a third of analysts covering the company have a buy rating, according to FactSet data.

See more: The 'space economy' is booming. Here's where most of the money is going.

Since AST SpaceMobile is "effectively pre-revenue," Kraft said his team based its target on expectations for 2030. Deutsche's latest estimate calls for a growth rate of 40% on earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, which is well ahead of the previous forecast.

But that depends on AST SpaceMobile reaching its 2026 goals.

If the company does, it's expected to begin providing round-the-clock coverage in Europe, Japan and the U.S., and generate service revenue in 2027, Kraft said. It will need as many as 100 satellites to provide global coverage, which would open it up to a massive market, according to the Deutsche analysis.

"While it might sound flip," the company's story is really all about total addressable market, Kraft said. AST SpaceMobile, alongside Starlink and others, is competing to serve roughly 5.8 billion unique mobile subscribers around the world.

Starlink, the company's primary rival, says it already has more than 9 million customers across 155 markets. Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN) aims to begin rolling out its own competing product this year following a preview last November.

Read: AST SpaceMobile and Starlink may prove friend, not foe, to these wireless stocks

-William Gavin

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January 20, 2026 13:16 ET (18:16 GMT)

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