A Look At Vault Minerals (ASX:VAU) Valuation After A Strong Quarterly Update And Production Outlook

Simply Wall St.

01/23

Vault Minerals (ASX:VAU) has drawn fresh attention after its December 2025 quarter update, reporting 76,520 ounces of gold production, A$12 million in free cash flow and reaffirmed FY26 output ...

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This suggests momentum has been building around the recent quarterly update and ongoing project work, while...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK7104":"黄金","VAU.AU":"Vault Minerals Ltd","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc"},"translate_title":"在强劲的季度更新和生产前景后审视Vault Minerals(ASX：VAU)的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"VAU.AU":1.5},"content_text":"Vault Minerals (ASX:VAU) has drawn fresh attention after its December 2025 quarter update, reporting 76,520 ounces of gold production, A$12 million in free cash flow and reaffirmed FY26 output guidance. See our latest analysis for Vault Minerals. At a share price of A$5.85, Vault Minerals has seen a 25.87% 90 day share price return and a 1 year total shareholder return of 146.58%. This suggests momentum has been building around the recent quarterly update and ongoing project work, while shorter term moves have remained choppy. If you are looking beyond gold producers after this update, it could be a good moment to widen your watchlist with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With the share price up strongly over 1 year and trading not far from analyst targets, the key question now is whether Vault Minerals still offers value or if the market is already pricing in its future growth. AdvertisementPreferred P/E of 25.8x: Is it justified? Vault Minerals trades on a P/E of 25.8x, with the shares at A$5.85 and the SWS DCF model indicating the price is 9.9% below its estimated fair value of A$6.50. The P/E ratio compares the current share price to earnings per share and is a common yardstick for gold producers and broader metals and mining names, because it ties valuation directly to current profitability. For Vault Minerals, the latest data indicates it has become profitable, with earnings growth over the past five years and forecasts pointing to earnings growth of 15.7% per year. On SWS estimates, the shares are described as trading below the calculated future cash flow value, which suggests the market price sits under the level implied by the DCF model. At the same time, the current P/E of 25.8x is described as slightly expensive relative to an estimated fair P/E of 24.7x, so there is a small premium compared to where the multiple could eventually settle if prices and earnings move closer to that fair ratio. Against peers, Vault Minerals’ P/E of 25.8x is in line with the wider Australian metals and mining industry average of 25.8x, yet well below the peer group average of 80.1x flagged in the data. That combination signals that, while the company trades on a sector typical multiple, it sits at a considerable discount to higher rated peers, which may reflect differences in growth expectations, asset base or risk profile that investors will weigh for themselves. Explore the SWS fair ratio for Vault Minerals Result: Price-to-Earnings of 25.8x (ABOUT RIGHT) However, you also need to factor in execution risk across multiple operations, as well as the chance that changing gold prices or costs could quickly shift earnings assumptions. Find out about the key risks to this Vault Minerals narrative. Another View: Profit Based Valuation Versus Cash Flows The P/E of 25.8x suggests Vault Minerals is roughly in line with the Australian metals and mining average. However, the SWS DCF model points to an estimated fair value of A$6.50, about 9.9% above the current A$5.85 price. If cash flows imply some upside while earnings point to a full price, which signal do you treat as more important? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. VAU Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Vault Minerals for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 880 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Vault Minerals Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to rely on your own work, you can review the data and build a complete view yourself in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way. A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Vault Minerals. Looking for more investment ideas? If Vault Minerals has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now so you do not miss other opportunities lining up on the radar.  Spot potential value in quality names by scanning these 880 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, where pricing is weighed directly against underlying cash flows. Tap into long term growth themes in medicine and diagnostics with these 111 healthcare AI stocks, highlighting companies applying AI to real world healthcare problems. Position yourself early in evolving digital asset trends through these 19 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks, tracking stocks linked to cryptocurrencies and blockchain infrastructure.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}