Chipotle Mexican Grill's (CMG) Q4 are expected to remain under pressure due to industry and macro headwinds, but trends are seen improving into early 2026, setting up a more favorable outlook, UBS Securities said in a Monday note.

Ahead of the company's Feb. 3 earnings, UBS forecasts a roughly 2.5% decline in Q4 same-store sales, modestly better than consensus, and expects low-single-digit same-store sales guidance for 2026.

The brokerage said investors will focus on early Q1 sales trends, pricing plans, and key drivers including limited-time offers, marketing, and value perception.

UBS expects macro pressures to persist but sees transaction growth rebounding in 2026 on easier comparisons and stronger menu innovation, marketing, and digital efforts.

The firm also sees Q4 margin pressure from softer sales, higher marketing spending, and beef costs, with commodities remaining a headwind into 2026. However, UBS sees upside potential if same-store sales improve, supported by steady unit growth and a strong balance sheet.

UBS maintained its buy rating on the stock with a price target of $45.

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill were down over 1% in recent trading Monday.

Price: 40.18, Change: -0.69, Percent Change: -1.69