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NEW ORDERS FOR DURABLE GOODS: AIRPLANES PROVIDED THE LIFT IN NOVEMBER

Investors who went digging through the snow for economic data on Monday yielded some data, but the report was staler than last week's bread.

New orders for long-lasting, U.S.-made goods USGDN=ECI surged by 5.3% in November, breezing past the 3.2% increase analysts expected and marking a robust rebound from October's 2.1% drop.

But don't get too excited; the volatile commercial aircraft segment provided most of the muscle.

Drilling down into the Commerce Department's report - which covers everything from toaster ovens to attack drones - the upside surprise is largely attributable to a 97.6% surge in new orders for commercial planes. Remove all transportation-related items, and new orders would have increased by a less impressive 0.5%.

A 14.3% drop in defense-related capital goods held the headline in check; excluding defense, the increase would have been 6.6%.

Communications and computer-related equipment rose by 4.8% and 3.8%, respectively, while cars/car parts softened by 0.5%.

"There is nothing wrong here, but there is nothing particularly great, either," writes Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. "Even though this report is not so hot, we do not see a case for the Fed to rush to cut rates in these data. All evidence suggests that aggregate demand is booming, growing faster than potential output, driven by consumer spending."

New orders for core capital goods - which excludes aircraft and defense items and is considered a barometer of U.S. corporate capex plans - posted a 0.7% gain, stronger than the 0.3% consensus, which would have been a repeat of the prior month's downwardly revised increase.

"We see scope for robust AI-related capital spending and a broadening of investment beyond AI to support stronger durable goods activity in 2026," says Oren Klachkin, market economist at Nationwide. "While uncertainty has stayed high in early 2026, we expect a moderation this year to support capital spending as well."

(Stephen Culp)

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