By Doug Busch

While everyone seems laser-focused on the rally in hard commodities like gold and silver, so-called soft commodities deserve just as much attention.

Agricultural inputs like grains, livestock, and dairy have quietly built their own upward momentum. That's exactly why vehicles such as the VanEck Agribusiness exchange-traded fund (ticker: MOO) are capturing investor interest, offering diversified exposure to the broader agricultural value chain from fertilizers and farm equipment to crop processing and distribution. In a market obsessed with metals, the soft commodity complex may be the next leadership theme waiting to break through.

What may catch some investors off guard is the makeup of the fund itself. Many expect a pure-play bet on crops or raw agricultural prices, but MOO's holdings tell a broader story, with industrial names like Deere playing a meaningful role. The fund also includes animal health and safety names such as Elanco Animal Health and Zoetis.

While I am a big advocate of buying strength, some names have already made their move and deserve respect, with any near-term consolidation worth monitoring for potential entries. Nutrien stock fits that bill, after surging nearly 20% over the past two weeks. But let's turn our attention to a few names that appear poised for their own potentially sizable moves.

CF Industries Holdings, a basic materials agriculture play, is gaining altitude in 2026, up more than 18% year to date. The stock is currently riding a four-week winning streak, its longest since a 10-week run between April and June. It continues to demonstrate solid relative strength versus peer Mosaic, which is essentially flat on the year.

CF stock is currently trading right at the very round $90 level, an area with significant price memory, having acted as both support and resistance on five separate occasions over the past year. The 50-day simple moving average is beginning to slope higher for the first time since last summer, and the price is now approaching a double bottom pivot at $93.18. Notably, a bearish island reversal was completed on June 24, marked by a gap lower near the very round $100 area, just days after a gap higher of more than 6% on June 15.

From here, an entry near current levels offers an attractive setup, with potential for a move toward $123 in the second half, representing approximately 34% upside from current prices. Remain bullish above $86.

CF Industry Holdings was trading around $91.50 Tuesday.

Archer-Daniels-Midland, a farm products play, has charged out of the gate in 2026, already up 17% while offering a dividend yield near 3%. Shares are trading just 1% below their most recent 52-week high and are in the midst of a four-week winning streak, their first in nearly two years. Peer confirmation adds to the constructive setup, with Bunge Global advancing roughly 25% during its own four-week run.

The weekly chart of Archer-Daniels-Midland shows a constructive breakout above the key $65 level, completing a bullish inverse head and shoulders formation. The pattern began to take shape last summer, marked by a doji in mid-July 2024 that preceded a sharp 38% decline, before momentum shifted with a bullish piercing line candle in early April. Just weeks earlier, a bullish morning star had already signaled that downside pressure was fading and the stock was preparing to turn higher.

A decisive move above the 200-week simple moving average could further accelerate the advance and open the door to a move toward $90 by year-end, representing approximately 34% upside from current levels. Remain bullish above $63.

Archer-Daniels Midland was trading around $68 Tuesday.

Darling Ingredients, a defensive packaged-foods play, has advanced a spirited 23% over the past three months. The stock is in the midst of a five-week winning streak and has closed higher in 11 of the last 15 sessions, signaling that a technical turnaround may be firmly in place.

Looking at Darling Ingredients' weekly chart, the 50-week simple moving average is starting to curl higher for the first time in years. That's a notable development, given that the stock has struggled to stay above this secular trendline over the past three years. The price recently broke above a bullish inverse head and shoulders formation at the round $40 level, a pivotal area. That zone that had acted as resistance since June 2024 and had also provided support between October 2023 and May 2024. This decisive move above $40 clears the way for a potential advance toward $55 by mid-2026, representing roughly 31% upside from current prices. Remain bullish above $37.

Darling Ingredients was trading around $43 Tuesday.

With the rally in precious metals and other hard commodities pausing, softs may be ready to take the baton and lead the next leg higher.

Write to Doug Busch at douglas.busch@barrons.com

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 27, 2026 16:04 ET (21:04 GMT)

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