By Bill Alpert

As a swath of the Eastern U.S. digs out from under Winter Storm Fern, a UBS analyst studied which property & casualty insurers might suffer some frostbite.

The storm has knocked out power for more than a million customers, and insurance analyst Brian Meredith thinks the losses for commercial, homeowner and auto carriers will be meaningful. The last wide-ranging winter storm was Uri in February 2021, and the UBS analyst thinks that insured losses from the current storm could meet or exceed Uri's total of $15 billion.

That's a big number, but the analyst estimates that catastrophe losses from the storm this quarter won't be all that far above the industry's 10-year averages. Perhaps that's why P&C insurer stocks haven't reacted to the storm.

In his Monday note, Meredith points to a few differences between Uri and the current storm Fern. The 2021 storm took Texas by surprise, so business interruption losses were high. At Travelers, catastrophe losses were 11% of premiums in the March 2021 quarter, compared with a historic 7.5% average, while business losses were 13%, compared with a 4.6% average.

Reinsurance levels could make losses higher for primary insurers in this year's quarter, because the levels at which reinsurance kicks in is higher now than it was in 2021.

Meredith thinks the largest insured losses from Winter Storm Fern will again hit commercial property lines, followed by homeowners and personal auto. Studying market share in the affected areas, he sees the biggest hits at Travelers, Chubb, Allstate, and Hartford.

Personal insurer Allstate could see $1 billion in March quarter losses this year. Catastrophe losses could be 7% of premiums and exceed the 6% ratio Allstate saw in the first quarter of 2021.

At Travelers, he estimates March quarter losses in commercial and personal lines could approach $650 million, with catastrophe losses of almost 6% of premiums. At Chubb, quarterly losses could approach $530 million, with catastrophe losses amounting to 5% of premiums. Losses at the Hartford could exceed $190 million, with 4% from catastrophe losses.

Write to Bill Alpert at william.alpert@barrons.com

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January 27, 2026 16:20 ET (21:20 GMT)

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