MW Here's the lesson Deutsche Bank learned from previous gold rallies as it lifts target to $6,000

By Steve Goldstein

Deutsche Bank has lifted its gold price forecast.

Deutsche Bank on Tuesday joined Wall Street peers in lifting its gold price forecast as the yellow metal rallies.

The German bank's new $6,000 target for the end of the year - a 28% increase from its previous forecast - matches that of Societe Generale as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley also lifted their targets.

So the notable point is not so much the increased price, but the rationale.

"What are the historical lessons to be learned from gold rallies, and are today's investor motivations different from earlier motivations," asked analysts led by Singapore-based Michael Hsueh. "When we look at sharp episodes of gold appreciation, we find that in 2/3rds of cases, gold is higher still after 6 and 12 months."

The analysts said that, unlike the 1980s, drivers today for gold are more structural than episodic - "including reserve managers reducing exposure to the threat of foreign asset freezing, investors seeking allocations to non-dollar and real assets, with long-term projections of government debt growth in mind."

Gold futures (GC00) were steady on Tuesday, trading around $5,077 an ounce, after an 83% surge over the last 52 weeks.

The analysts also were bullish on silver, where the target was hiked by 71% to $100. They say a new investment flow has emerged since December, and it's possible that reserve managers or sovereign wealth funds have opened allocations to silver, which would not be publicly known.

The analysts noted that China's efforts to fully capture tax revenue on offshore investment and the Reserve Bank of India's plan to allow silver to be used as collateral for loans both have helped fuel demand.

Silver futures (SI00) fell 3% on Tuesday, but have soared 262% over the last 52 weeks.

The broader message from the analysts is that structurally higher geopolitical risk will support higher prices across commodities. "For commodities more broadly speaking, an important mechanism of action results from more overt great power competition and the resource nationalism associated with it," they say.

-Steve Goldstein

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January 27, 2026 07:33 ET (12:33 GMT)

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