By Adria Calatayud

Intesa Sanpaolo is scheduled to report results for the fourth quarter on Monday. Here is what you need to know:

OPERATING INCOME FORECAST: The Italian bank is expected to report fourth-quarter operating income--its top-line figure--of 6.79 billion euros ($8.13 billion), mainly coming from net interest income of 3.72 billion euros and net fee and commission income of 2.53 billion euros, according to consensus estimates provided by Visible Alpha. For the fourth quarter of 2024, the bank reported operating income of 6.67 billion euros, with net interest income at 3.80 billion euros and net fee and commission income of 2.42 billion euros.

NET PROFIT FORECAST: Analysts expect Intesa's quarterly net profit at 1.62 billion euros, according to the same consensus. It posted a net profit of 1.50 billion euros for the year-earlier period.

Shares in Intesa gained 5.5% during the fourth quarter, and have edged 0.5% higher since the start of 2026.

WHAT TO WATCH

--STRATEGY: Intesa is due to unveil a new business plan alongside its fourth-quarter results. Since its last plan covered the 2022-25 period, the new targets could run from 2026 to 2029, analysts at Citi wrote in a note to clients. Intesa could target growth in net interest income to about 16.5 billion euros in 2029 based on conservative interest-rate assumptions, and income from fees and insurance of about 14.2 billion euros, Citi estimated. The plan should be well received by investors even if fourth-quarter results are somewhat weaker than consensus forecasts, the Citi analysts added. Beyond specific targets, Intesa could update investors on its plans to speed up its wealth-management business, its digital-transformation journey and associated efficiency gains, Equita Sim analyst Andrea Lisi said. Meanwhile, analysts at Bank of America said Intesa is at a key strategic juncture and its main challenge over the medium term is how it can export its success story outside of Italy.

CAPITAL RETURNS: The bank could review its capital distribution policy as part of the new strategic plan, Equita's Lisi said. A dividend payout policy higher than the current 70% shouldn't be ruled out while leaving room for potential share buybacks, Lisi added. Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said they expect Intesa to announce a buyback of 2 billion euros with its fourth-quarter results.

Write to Adria Calatayud at adria.calatayud@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 30, 2026 08:10 ET (13:10 GMT)

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