Gas futures rise as LNG export flows increase
Output rises after Arctic blast
LSEG projects gas demand to fall, storage levels drop below normal
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped 11% on Friday on forecasts for the weather to remain colder than normal through at least the middle of February and as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export plants increased, including the likely return of a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG in Texas.
Gas futures for March delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 43.6 cents, or 11.1%, to settle at $4.354 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
That put futures on track to drop about 18% for the week after gaining a record 70% last week.
For the month, futures were on track to rise about 18% after collapsing about 24% last month.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states dropped to 106.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.
Daily output, however, was on track to rise for a fifth day in a row to 105.7 bcfd on Friday after collapsing to a two-year low of 92.5 bcfd on Sunday due mostly to freezing wells in Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma, according to LSEG data. That output figure compares with a recent high of 110.0 bcfd on January 12 and an all-time daily high of 111.2 bcfd on December 21.
Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly colder than normal through February 14, though not nearly as cold as the weekend of January 24-25.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 170.7 bcfd this week to 156.5 bcfd next week and 146.6 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday, while its forecast for next week was lower.
Analysts projected energy firms likely pulled so much gas out of storage to meet near-record demand during the Arctic blast this week that stockpiles would go from around 5% above normal for this time of year during the week ended January 23 to about 1% below normal during the week ended January 30. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants fell to 17.7 bcfd so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to rise for a fourth day in a row to 17.9 bcfd on Friday after dropping to a one-year low of 11.5 bcfd on Monday due to reductions at almost all plants during the winter storm.
Week ended Jan 30 Forecast | Week ended Jan 23 Actual | Year ago Jan 30 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 30 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -352 | -242 | -155 | -190 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,471 | 2,823 | 2,422 | 2,490 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -0.8% | +5.3% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.86 | 3.92 | 3.72 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 13.65 | 14.02 | 14.67 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 11.47 | 11.29 | 14.16 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 490 | 518 | 375 | 427 | 432 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 3 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 3 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 493 | 521 | 386 | 431 | 435 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 107.4 | 98.9 | 100.7 | 105.3 | 98.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 10.3 | 11.9 | 9.1 | N/A | 9.6 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 117.8 | 110.9 | 109.8 | N/A | 108.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.8 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.0 | 6.3 | 5.9 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.8 | 15.3 | 17.9 | 14.8 | 12.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 19.9 | 24.6 | 21.1 | 16.7 | 17.3 |
U.S. Residential | 33.7 | 43.4 | 33.9 | 28.4 | 29.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 35.2 | 41.4 | 37.2 | 34.4 | 32.5 |
U.S. Industrial | 26.7 | 28.2 | 27.1 | 25.3 | 26.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 4.4 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 124.2 | 146.6 | 129.8 | 113.5 | 115.5 |
Total U.S. Demand | 151.9 | 170.7 | 156.5 | N/A | 137.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 91 | 92 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 91 | 91 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 96 | 96 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jan 30 | Week ended Jan 23 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 8 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
40 | 37 | 40 | 42 | 41 | |
Coal | 23 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 17 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 10.25 | 9.34 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 41.01 | 39.76 | 8.77 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.26 | 2.49 | 3.87 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 8.48 | 9.05 | 3.74 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 11.84 | 12.22 | 3.93 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 33.75 | 48.40 | 15.67 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.92 | 3.48 | 4.49 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.36 | 3.05 | 3.27 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.36 | 1.52 | 1.22 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 303.94 | 366.25 | 147.88 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 370.26 | 482.08 | 75.11 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 22.95 | 27.93 | 52.79 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 19.22 | 28.69 | 44.47 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 21.49 | 25.57 | 39.98 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino. Editing by Jane Merriman and David Gregorio)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))