MW Soybean prices surge to highest level this year, as Trump surprises market with plan for more sales to China

By Myra P. Saefong

The sort of buying President Trump outlined from China seems 'unlikely on many fronts, but neither can the possibility be ignored,' analyst says

Soybeans rose Wednesday to their highest level of the year.

Soybean prices on Wednesday jumped to their highest prices of the year after President Donald Trump expressed optimism on the prospects of a deal with China to purchase more U.S. soybeans.

Whether that all comes to fruition is another matter, however, raising uncertainty over the potential benefits to farmers and questions over whether the gains in soybean prices are sustainable.

"There will be the caveat China can still buy from whatever country is the most competitive," said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart, who noted that prices for soybeans from Brazil are cheaper.

In a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump said he had an "excellent" phone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping and that he was looking forward to his planned trip to China in April. He wrote that China has "committed to buying 25 Million Tons for next season!," referring to soybeans, and that Beijing would consider "lifting the Soybean count to 20 Million Tons for the current season."

Soybean futures moved higher in midmorning trading following Trump's post, noted Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX.

The most active March soybean contract (S00) (SH26) rose 26.5 cents, or 2.5%, to settle at $10.9225 a bushel on the CME's $(CME)$ Chicago Board of Trade. That was the highest finish since Dec. 11, while prices marked their biggest daily percentage rise since Nov. 17, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The 20 million metric tons would be up from the 12 million metric tons in China's original soybean purchase agreement, Suderman said in commentary. That additional 8 million metric tons of soybean business to China was not priced into the market, and would equate to nearly 294 million bushels of additional sales to China that are not currently on the balance sheet, he said. The balance sheet tracks changes in supply and demand.

That sort of buying seems "unlikely on many fronts, but neither can the possibility be ignored," Suderman added. He explained that the U.S. balance sheet doesn't have another 294 million bushels of available soybeans to export, especially if we get a strong biofuel program as expected in a matter of weeks. Soybeans are used in the production of biofuels.

Also, U.S. soybean prices are already roughly 70 cents above Brazilian prices landed at the port in China, so soybean crushers have "zero incentive to buy the U.S. soybeans," Suderman noted.

Trump's original "handshake agreement" with President Xi had included 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybean purchases for the current marketing year, followed by 25 million metric tons in each of the next three years, Suderman told MarketWatch by email. That compares to historical Chinese buying patterns of 30 million to 35 million metric tons from the U.S., he said.

'Brazilian soybeans are simply cheaper,' so it makes 'zero economic sense for China to buy more U.S. soybeans at this time.'Arlan Suderman, StoneX

China has been investing in Brazil's agriculture and infrastructure for the past 20 years, according to Suderman, and "Brazil could now supply every bushel that China needs without a single bushel coming from the United States."

"Brazilian soybeans are simply cheaper," he added, so it makes "zero economic sense for China to buy more U.S. soybeans at this time."

Still, Trump is trying to shore up his support base ahead of U.S. midterm elections later this year, while Xi has his own set of problems at home, as illustrated by the ongoing purge in the military there, Suderman said. Given that, China buying more U.S. soybeans can't be ruled out.

-Myra P. Saefong

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February 04, 2026 16:54 ET (21:54 GMT)

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