By Nick Devor

Super Bowl Sunday was already the biggest betting event of the year, but this time the whole country can get in on the action.

While online sports betting is still illegal in 18 states, including California and Texas, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are available nationwide.

Event contracts sold on prediction markets allow customers to put money on a team and get paid if they win, and the platforms have spent the past year beefing up their offerings to more closely resemble sportsbooks. Prediction market traders can bet on everything that sportsbook bettors can -- the total number of points scored by both teams, individual player statistics, and even what color Gatorade the winning coach will be doused in.

If betting on the game itself isn't of interest, prediction markets also offer contracts related to the halftime show, such as what songs will be performed or how many minutes the show will run.

Sportsbooks in most states require bettors to be 21 years old, but anyone over the age of 18 can trade on a prediction market.

Kalshi and Polymarket each began taking bets on who would win this year's Super Bowl just a few weeks after last year's big game. The two platforms have seen a combined $870 million in trading volume since then.

Sports have taken on outsize importance to the business of prediction markets, with roughly 89% of Kalshi's fee revenue coming from sports contracts in 2025.

Polymarket has a data sharing partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of Barron's.

Of course, the traditional sportsbooks are closing the season with a bang as well. Last year, an estimated $1.39 billion was wagered on the big game, according to the American Gaming Association. This Sunday a record $1.76 billion is expected, a 27% bump from 2025.

In the lead up to the Super Bowl, boosters of traditional sportsbooks have been denigrating prediction markets. A recent press release from the American Gaming Association, a legacy gambling industry lobbying group, said "prediction markets are confusing consumers by promoting sports betting as an investment rather than entertainment."

But from a betting point of view, they are nearly identical. As of Friday afternoon, wagering $100 on the Seattle Seahawks via Kalshi would get you $141 should they win; the same $100 bet on DraftKings sportsbook would win $144.

The U.S. sports betting duopoly of FanDuel and DraftKings see the appeal of prediction markets. Both offer their own prediction market apps in states without legal online sports betting.

There is one place prediction markets won't be able to compete with sportsbooks: the airwaves. The NFL has banned advertisements for prediction markets during the Super Bowl, Front Office Sports reports, putting them on a list of prohibited topics alongside tobacco and pornagraphy.

The league's reticence may not be permanent. NFL Executive Vice President Jeff Miller said in an interview with Front Office Sports this week that there is no question the league will spend a lot of time talking about prediction markets in future months.

"We're interested, of course," he added, "but we're also going to be cautious."

Write to Nick Devor at nicholas.devor@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 06, 2026 14:57 ET (19:57 GMT)

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