都说快手被严重低估了，就是下一个腾讯控股？事实真的是这样吗？

新能源正前方

02/07

这是新能源正前方的第1267篇原创文章快手真的是一眼低估的公司吗？港股市场真的那么无效，一直对它的低估视而不见？毫无疑问，快手是一个争议非常大的公司，看好它的人说它一眼低估，不看好的又认为它的所谓低估其实是陷阱，所以，究竟哪一个才是真相？01快手确实相对低估了快手是一个互联网企业，如果看过前一阵子leo剖析几个互联网巨头的文章，应该会给互联网企业额外加点分，互联网相比很多行业确实有优势，我们必须...

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15:39","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2609412275","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"都说快手被严重低估了，就是下一个腾讯控股？事实真的是这样吗？","media":"新能源正前方","content":"<div>\n<p>这是新能源正前方的第1267篇原创文章快手真的是一眼低估的公司吗？港股市场真的那么无效，一直对它的低估视而不见？毫无疑问，快手是一个争议非常大的公司，看好它的人说它一眼低估，不看好的又认为它的所谓低估其实是陷阱，所以，究竟哪一个才是真相？01快手确实相对低估了快手是一个互联网企业，如果看过前一阵子leo剖析几个互联网巨头的文章， 应该会给互联网企业额外加点分，互联网相比很多行业确实有优势，我们必须...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260207160636a4877da6&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>都说快手被严重低估了，就是下一个腾讯控股？事实真的是这样吗？</title>\n<style 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应该会给互联网企业额外加点分，互联网相比很多行业确实有优势，我们必须...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260207160636a4877da6&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2152927971.USD","symbol_name":"NORDEA 1 ASIAN STARS EQUITY \"BP\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260207160636a4877da6&s=b","article_id":"2609412275","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260207160636a4877da6&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2609412275","pubTimestamp":1770449946,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"如果从比较客观的角度来看，光快手做的事情，15倍的估值，对比A股很多公司，确实被严重低估了，这是毫无疑问的。这就是快手潜在的风险，它存在估值越来越高的潜在风险，现在的低估值并不具备长期低估的基础，这才是它一直被低估的真实原因。结果就是现在靠着提升用户货币化率维持的低估迹象，并不具备真正的长期可持续性。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"81024":"快手-WR","LU2152927971.USD":"NORDEA 1 ASIAN STARS EQUITY \"BP\" (USD) ACC","IE0001KFT4U8.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE GLOBAL GROWTH LEADERS \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B5MMRT66.SGD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0708995153.HKD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1152091168.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" INC","LU0516423174.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0417516571.SGD":"Allianz Oriental Income Cl AT Acc 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Is that really the case?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81024":0.6,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"KSTmain":0.6,"01024":1.96,"TCHmain":0.6},"content_text":"这是新能源正前方的第1267篇原创文章快手真的是一眼低估的公司吗？港股市场真的那么无效，一直对它的低估视而不见？毫无疑问，快手是一个争议非常大的公司，看好它的人说它一眼低估，不看好的又认为它的所谓低估其实是陷阱，所以，究竟哪一个才是真相？01快手确实相对低估了快手是一个互联网企业，如果看过前一阵子leo剖析几个互联网巨头的文章， 应该会给互联网企业额外加点分，互联网相比很多行业确实有优势，我们必须承认商业模式上的天差地别。更不要说快手干的又是当下堪称印钞机模式的短视频业务，这又值得大大加分了，别忘了，送外卖和网约车也是互联网相关，相比而言，因为有履约成本，尤其是送外卖，就苦逼多了。不仅如此，快手跟纯粹的短视频平台又有所不同， 因为它是在视频处理工具的基础上加上社区起来，最终转向短视频这个领域的，相比抖音那样的纯粹短视频平台，它拥有更强的社区属性。这大大增强了用户的使用粘性，不过很多事物都有两面性，社区属性增强了用户粘性的同时，也让快手在广告加载量上处于相对劣势。但不管怎么样说，身跨社交和短视频这两个当下堪称最优的互联网生意赛道，市盈率却仅有15倍，确实看起来很便宜，这也是快手总是被很多人说属于一眼低估的公司的原因。如果从比较客观的角度来看，光快手做的事情，15倍的估值，对比A股很多公司，确实被严重低估了，这是毫无疑问的。这当然跟港股市场的流动性比较弱有关，加上港股市场的参与主体以机构投资者为主，他们都是不见兔子不撒鹰的主儿，而快手在他们看来就属于不见兔子或者看不清楚是否会有兔子的公司，也就很难给予更高的估值了。02快手的问题所在快手最根本的问题在于国内市场，作为行业老三，在老大抖音和老二视频号的挤压之下，它的生存空间越来越小。而出海方面，在TikTok 几乎横扫全球，乃至Meta的短视频业务也起来的情况下（meta的短视频业务Reels类似于国内的微信视频号，直接内置于meta的产品体系内，没有单独的APP），快手 始终起不来的量决定了出海的路子长期而言基本被封死了。互联网行业是一个典型的赢家通吃行业，短视频赛道更是如此了，更多的用户意味着更多的内容生产者、更多的内容供应、更好的用户体验、更强的用户粘性、更多的内容消费，广告主也就更多，最终转化成了更高的商业变现效率，反过来，商业变现上的优势又提升了对内容生产者的吸引力，这就是一个不断正向循环的模式。互联网的头部效应，叠加字节跳动在算法上的优势以及团队恐怖的战斗力，决定了行业后排企业几乎不可能有逆袭的机会，而且市占率会被持续抢占。视频号之所以能在抖音拥有如此恐怖的竞争优势的情况下起来，根本原因还是微信堪称无可动摇的粘性，在微信视频号出来之前，腾讯也推出了多款短视频应用，最终都失败了，没办法只能祭出微信这个超级大杀器，才算真正在短视频领域取得突破。几乎可以确定地说，如果微信视频号单独推出app也会失败，不可能有现在这样的优异成绩，meta的短视频业务Reels的成功也是同样的道理，也是因为meta平台的超强粘性，脱离于他们拥有的平台单独推短视频，成功的概率太低了。原因就是上面说的字节跳动作为行业龙头具有恐怖的竞争优势，而且这种优势在越是竞争充分的市场越强。甚至几乎可以这么说，假如全世界没有任何市场进入壁垒，则抖音和TikTok之下寸草不生。内容供应和商业化上的优势形成了飞轮效应，时间拉长了看，后排厂商的命运要不就是极速死亡，要不就是慢慢凋零。视频号有微信这个国民最强粘性app的托举，依然很难超越抖音，更不可能在全球范围上超过TikTok（就别说超过了，能不能成功出海都是巨大的问题，毕竟海外没有多少人用微信），但依托于微信的粘性，在国内有机会慢慢缩小与抖音的差距。作为老三，什么都没有，关键快手在大众层面的认知属于土味群体，几乎锁死了它在国内更大范围的渗透，日活4亿多就是峰顶了，别说增长了，往后能守住就烧高香了。03快手的中期和长期话说回来，快手虽然在用户量和商业化上相比抖音有巨大的劣势，但社区起家的它，相比抖音这种纯正的视频平台更多了一份社交属性，也让它拥有了较强的用户粘性，这在相当程度上防住了抖音和视频号的强力进攻，在未来一段时间保持3到4亿的日活可能性还是比较大的。用户很难增长后，就只能想办法提升单个用户的货币化，通过提升货币化，快手在未来一段时间里保持业绩增长还是有点机会的，但用户是商业化的基础，用户增长空间被锁死的情况下，也就决定了它长期的商业化成长空间被锁死了。一旦单个用户的货币化增长速度低于用户的流失速度，则公司的业绩增长也就到头了，而且悲哀的是，在用户增长出问题的情况下提升货币化率，可能会加速用户的离去，很可能会出现短期业绩增长后快速雪崩的情况。这跟飞轮效应是反过来的。这就是快手潜在的风险，它存在估值越来越高的潜在风险，现在的低估值并不具备长期低估的基础，这才是它一直被低估的真实原因。再考虑到快手的用户主体是北方的居民，而且以中老年人为主，年轻人群体占比少，在商业化率上天然就更弱一些，越往后，时间对于快手越不利。结果就是现在靠着提升用户货币化率维持的低估迹象，并不具备真正的长期可持续性。这才是它一直估值不高、一直被低估的原因！至于ai可灵给它带来的想象空间啥的，就算了吧，影响不了长期的大局，用户数量和综合实力的差距，决定了它在ai领域相比抖音也没有任何胜算，只能说提升一些运营效率，对于长期局面不会有太大的影响。快手的问题其实是很多企业的共性，很多企业看起来一直被低估，但实际上背后的根本原因是企业失去了成长性，或者说市场看不到它的长期成长性在哪里，自然不愿意给高估值。就像人一样，一旦没有了成长性，就只有衰老和死亡，不会有人看好。成长才是最珍贵的特质！如果大家也对所长看的企业、行业专家交流纪要感兴趣，可以加入《价值宝库》查看。《价值宝库》是所长团队精心打造的投研资料库，每天会上传100+内容，绝大多数都是大家最为关心的一手调研纪要，此外还有各种研报、突发/热门事件分析、宏观政策及市场解读等内容。总之，只要是对咱们有用的，所长能找到的，都会上传到里面。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}