By Elena Vardon

BNP Paribas is scheduled to report results for the fourth quarter of 2025 on Thursday. Here is what you need to know:

REVENUE FORECAST: The French bank's revenue is estimated to come in at 12.86 billion euros ($15.20 billion), according to a company-compiled consensus calculated from 16 analyst estimates, up from 12.14 billion euros a year prior. Top-line growth is expected to be driven by improvements in its French and Belgian retail division while its investment and protection services--which includes its asset gathering division--should see a boost from the consolidation of AXA IM.

NET PROFIT FORECAST: The Paris-based group is expected to report 2.835 billion euros in net profit for the three months ended Dec. 31, up from 2.32 billion euros.

Shares rose 5% over the fourth quarter. Since the beginning of January, they have risen almost 14% and trade at just under 92 euros.

WHAT TO WATCH:

--The market will be watching for signs of the bank's intent in terms of capital management. Focus will be on whether it leans toward returning cash to shareholders or invest in growth, UBS analysts wrote in a note to clients.

"A key question for investors is how quickly BNP can get to the new 13% CET1 [capital ratio] target, with some bulls suggesting that BNP could get there already in Q4 2025," a Morgan Stanley analyst said. In November, the bank raised its common equity tier 1 ratio target to 2027 to 13% from 12.5%. Consensus estimates a 12.5% CET1 at the end of the fourth quarter.

Beyond a dividend in line with its payout policy, the group isn't expected to announce extra shareholder distributions. Analysts pencil in a 5.3-euro-a-share payout on 2025's earnings, according to the consensus.

--The market will be watching for any further updates regarding a Sudan-related litigation after a U.S. court decision in October sparked fears of potential costly settlements. BNP Paribas said on Wednesday that it will file its notice of appeal on Feb. 9.

"Progress--or the lack thereof--on the Sudan litigation will be the major determinant of BNP's valuation in the near term. We do not expect any fresh update on this matter in the results," Morningstar's Johann Scholtz said.

Write to Elena Vardon at elena.vardon@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 04, 2026 11:24 ET (16:24 GMT)

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