面对 OpenClaw，苹果选择刀背藏身

爱范儿

02/10

谁能想到，2026 年第一款热销设备，是被 OpenClaw 带飞的 Mac Mini——一个一直以来在苹果产品序列里，都不温不火的存在，就这样硬生生地被拉了起来。OpenClaw 的全能就不再赘述，最近已经被讲得很多。但是 OpenClaw+Mac Mini 的搭配，就出现了一个最令人困惑的问题：既然 OpenClaw 这样的 Agent 能让电脑自动回复邮件、管理日程、掌管一切，为什么拥有 ...

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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260210094140a6e82d04&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00B5949003.HKD","symbol_name":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260210094140a6e82d04&s=b","article_id":"2610069523","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260210094140a6e82d04&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, 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knife","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPB":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"MACW.SI":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"AAPL":1.96,"AAPU":0.6},"content_text":"谁能想到，2026 年第一款热销设备，是被 OpenClaw 带飞的 Mac Mini——一个 一直以来在苹果产品序列里，都不温不火的存在，就这样硬生生地被拉了起来。OpenClaw 的全能就不再赘述，最近已经被讲得很多。但是 OpenClaw+Mac Mini 的搭配，就出现了一个最令人困惑的问题：既然 OpenClaw 这样的 Agent 能让电脑自动回复邮件、管理日程、掌管一切，为什么拥有 Siri 和庞大生态的苹果自己不做？苹果拥有硬件、生态系统，以及“开箱即用”的能力，他们完全可以推出一款官方的“超级 Siri”，甚至为此每台设备多收个几百美元，就像 Apple Care 似的，相信用户也会趋之若鹜。这也是 Y Combinator 合伙人 Jake Quist 的观点：如果苹果公司拥有了人工智能代理层，他们就能在科技领域打造最坚固的护城河，Agent 对用户了解得越多，就越智能。苹果已经掌握了用户几乎所有的数据、应用乃至设备。他们本可以构建一个能够无缝运行于 iPhone、Mac、iPad 和 Apple Watch 之间的 Agent——这是其他任何公司都无法做到的。但实际上，假设苹果真把 Siri 的战略高度提到 S 级，迅速做出一个类似 OpenClaw 的东西来，会怎么样？他们第二天就会收到微软和 Meta 的律师函。你让 Siri 去帮忙发一个 Instagram 帖子？可以，这直接就是送上门的素材，Instagram 的用户条款里明令禁止做自动化操作。让 Siri 去 LinkedIn 上发一个求职申请？来着了，LinkedIn 是是全球对自动化打击最严厉的平台之一，《用户协议》第 8.2 条明确禁止了一系列自动化操作。“用户协议”很多时候就是一个君子协定，尤其是用户作为个人的爬取和自动化操作，本身属于一个灰色地带，平台通常睁只眼闭只眼。个人跑跑 Agent，平台最多也就是封禁账号，很难起诉每一个用户。搞得太过就不好看：LinkedIn 曾经在 2019 年就打过官司，一家小型数据分析公司 hiQ 起诉 LinkedIn 封禁自己的爬虫工具，一路打到最高法，最后还是 hiQ 落败，双方和解。可是苹果作为一个公司来做，性质就不一样了。如果苹果在 iOS/macOS 里内置一个 Agent，相当于苹果作为一个商业实体，系统性地绕过平台的 API 防火墙。这妥妥属于“不正当竞争”和“干扰商业关系”，官司你就打吧，一打一个不吱声。但如果是用户自己买了一台 Mac Mini，自己在上面运行了一个开源的 OpenClaw 代码呢？那无论做什么，都跟苹果没关系了。苹果只是卖了一台计算机硬件，至于用户在上面运行什么——是用来剪辑视频，还是用来“通过自动化脚本剥离广告”——那是用户自己的行为。人人都以为苹果错失良机，吃着瓜看着他们 AI 部门的人事震荡，嘲讽他们在战略上的怠慢。可是眼见 OpenClaw 拉升 Mac Mini 销量之后，苹果有了新的路线可供选择：刀背藏身。苹果的“前科”苹果这些年一直温吞，让人忘了它曾经的“战绩”。2021 年，苹果推出了 App 跟踪透明度（简称 ATT），从 iOS 14 开始，用户可以选择不共享 IDFA 标签。从此之后，你会在打开 app 时收到一个弹窗，询问是否允许 App 跟踪。结果是 90% 的用户点了“拒绝”。IDFA 是广告商在 Facebook 等第三方平台上进行定向投放时使用的唯一标识符。被切断之后，Meta 无法追踪用户是否在看到广告后进行了购买。这让 Meta 的广告投放变成了瞎子摸象，精准度大跌，广告商因此削减了在 Facebook 和 Instagram 上的预算。这一招直接导致 Meta 当年营收损失超过 100 亿美元，股价大跌。首席财务官 David Wehner 在财报电话会上明确表示跟 ATT 相关，这部分收入在当时占 Facebook 年收入的 8%，股价下跌 26%，市值蒸发了约 2320 亿美元。这在当时创下了美国股市历史上单日市值损失最大的纪录。在当时 Meta 受到的影响最大，因为他们对 IDFA 的依赖最重。但其它的科技巨头也多多少少受到影响，比如给 Snapchat、Twitter 和 YouTube 三家公司总共造成的收入损失在 32 亿美元左右。ATT 为苹果自家的广告业务打出了时间差，据《金融时报》援引动营销平台 Branch 的数据，新政执行的六个月之后，Apple Search Ads 的市场份额就翻了三倍，占据了 iOS 应用安装广告的半壁江山。与此同时，华尔街投行 Evercore ISI 预测，这一策略将助推苹果广告营收在 2026 年冲击 300 亿美元大关——而这些钱，原本大部分是属于 Meta 和 Google 的。你或许会问，这无非是 Facebook 自身不再受欢迎了，所以一被卡脖子就痛得不行，TikTok 就没受影响。花无百日红，这不过是社交媒体平台改朝换代的必然结果罢了。但问题是，如果按这个说法，安卓系统和 OS 系统的 Facebook 应该同步震荡，但是在 ATT 生效半年后，安卓端的广告投放并没有大跌。再换个视角，同样是圈定年轻用户的 Snapchat，在 ATT 规定出台后发布了财报，不仅在当年第四季度营收同比增长 42%，达到 13 亿美元，日活跃用户数达到 3.19 亿，还新增了 5400 万用户，较上一年同期增长 20%。这一切都是因为，Snapchat 在一年前就着手准备，协助广告商换成了 Snap Advanced Conversions，或者 Apple SKAdnetwork——苹果自己开发的广告追踪方案。“尊重用户隐私”是一个多么无懈可击的说法，占领了道德高地，让苹果可以毫无心理负担地打击竞争对手的根基，兵不血刃。苹果的阳谋本质上，Openclaw 所依赖的“MacMini+本地 AI”，会出现跟前 ATT 时代广告模式一样的问题：依赖一个来自苹果的基础建设。如果用户通过搭建和使用类似 OpenClaw 这样的服务，让 AI 既过滤了广告、绕过了平台，还完成了想做的事情，整个过程中苹果不仅没损失，反而卖出了更多硬件，那他们自然是开心的。这也完全符合苹果打击“数据资本主义”的一贯策略。而为此的铺垫也很早就开始了，苹果最近两年在 Mac 上做了一件很鸡贼的事：推行统一内存架构，内存卖得极贵。在 AI 时代之前，普通用户并不一定不需要 128G 或 256G 内存，对苹果“刀法”的吐槽素来有之。但现在时代变了，大模型（LLM）最吃的就是显存/内存。苹果的 M 系列芯片是目前市面上最好的能以消费级价格（相比 NVIDIA H100）跑得动大参数量模型的硬件，并且没有云端环境的复杂，只有速通各个文件夹、代码库的便利。配合硬件苹果发布了 MLX 框架（一个专门让开源 AI 在苹果芯片上高效运行的工具）。这不仅是示好，这是在赤裸裸地招揽开发者：“别买英伟达了，来买 Mac Studio 吧，我们这里跑 Llama 3 和 OpenClaw 最好了。”然而，提供“能跑 AI 的硬件”只是第一步，苹果最高明的地方在于它对风险的隔离——这一点，体现在它对 iOS 和 macOS 完全不同的管理尺度上。iOS 生态是被结结实实保护起来的围墙花园，如果今天 OpenClaw 是以 app 形态出现，苹果绝对不会放行，理由无非是“破坏系统安全”或“未经授权的自动化”，总之不会允许这种可能招致反垄断诉讼和隐私灾难的东西上架 App Store。可是对于 macOS，苹果一直保留了 Mac 的“通用计算机”属性。你可以在 Mac 上安装任何未签名的软件（自行开放安全权限），运行任何开源代码。如果出现了问题，比如 AI 乱发东西、乱下单，苹果可以两手一摊：“这是用户在开放系统上的个人行为，与我们无关”。这是一种完美的隔离，比自己下场做一个随时会失控闹出问题来的 Agent 清爽多了。正是这种分而治之的开放，反而成了苹果最深的护城河。因为只有在本地，用户才敢交出那个最致命的权限——Root。距离 OpenClaw 出现已经过了一阵日子，越来越多的翻车事件出现，包括但不限于 api 花钱如流水、AI 帮用户申请贷款、删掉了重要的本地文件等等等等。这些翻车都更加凸显了一台 Mac Mini 的重要性——它提供了一个物理上与外界隔离、完全由用户掌控的安全沙盒。用户愿意在 Mac Mini 上授予 OpenClaw Root 权限，是因为代码是开源的、透明的，且运行在自己书房的桌子上，而不是某个不知名的云端服务器里。在这个维度上，苹果已经在 AI 竞赛占好了先机：他们或许不拥有最聪明的模型，但已经拥有了承载用户信任的硬件。苹果的刀背藏身眼下，真的会让苹果犹豫的，可能是另一个巨头：Google。Google 每年支付给苹果约 200 亿美元，只为了成为 Safari 的默认搜索引擎。如果 Mac Mini + AI 真的彻底让用户跳过了“搜索”这个环节，刺激 Google 的搜索流量暴跌，苹果这 200 亿的“保护费”也就岌岌可危了。到底是卖自己的货挣回来，还是继续躺着拿 200 亿美元，还真是甜蜜的烦恼啊。这笔钱的存在，恰恰揭示了新旧两个时代的交接。默认搜索引擎是旧时代烙印在各个互联网巨头的印记，Google 想要你亲自搜索，亲眼看到结果列表，这样它才可以放广告。LinkedIn 需要你亲自登录网页，忍受繁琐的界面，这样它才能给你展示金主的招聘信息。Instagram 需要你在信息流里不断向下滑动，这样它才能在朋友的照片之间插入赞助商链接。上一个时代，平台用尽所有手段，就是为了把用户按在自己的阵地里，收割注意力然后变现。你可以说这种商业模式是低效的，但它也是奏效的，支撑了 web 2.0 到移动互联网一整个黄金岁月。但现在你突然说，不，不用了，以后有我的 Agent 替我刷信息流、发求职、检索答案。它们高效、冷酷、直奔目标，不会被短视频带跑。我只需要为它们挑选一台好用的硬件设备就行。在一系列商业闭环中，“人”消失了。可广告商要买的就是人的眼球，和人的弱点，而不是 AI 的爬虫。如果 Instagram 的一半流量都变成 Agent 的点击，这跟刷单买量有什么区别，闹呢？时至今天，广告始终是互联网商业不可撼动的营收支柱，2023 年 Google 母公司 Alphabet 全年总营收 3074 亿美元，其中广告营收（Search + YouTube + Network）为 2378 亿美元，占比 77%。同年，Meta 全年营收 1349 亿美元，其中广告占 1319 亿，比重高达惊人的 97.8%。连手握 7 亿月活用户的 OpenAI，想出来变现的法子，不还是广告吗？但小孩子才做选择，大人全都要。苹果既要吃旧时代的巨头红利，也要当新时代的铲子商人。至于未来，到底是 Google 继续统治广告世界，还是本地 AI 彻底重构信息获取方式——都可以，都没关系。战术上防御，战略上准备，这就是刀背藏身的要义，随时可以拔出刀来。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}