马斯克：最便宜的AI算力在太空、人形机器人就是“印钞机”

澎湃新闻

02/09

澎湃新闻记者吴遇利近日，在一场持续近3小时的公开视频访谈中，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克抛出了一个颇具争议的判断：在未来30至36个月内，部署AI算力最便宜的地方将不再是地球，而是太空。特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克。视觉中国资料图在与播客博主Dwarkesh Patel以及全球支付公司Stripe联合创始人John Collison的对话中，马斯克系统阐述了其对人工智能扩展路径的最新看法，称AI的最大...

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Collison的对话中，马斯克系统阐述了其对人工智能扩展路径的最新看法，称AI的最大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260209180611a48eb6d7&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"CRSH","symbol_name":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260209180611a48eb6d7&s=b","article_id":"2610205636","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260209180611a48eb6d7&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, 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printing machines\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSL":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TSLL":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"TSLA":1.96,"UFO":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLQ":0.6,"TESL":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSDD":0.6},"content_text":"澎湃新闻记者 吴遇利近日，在一场持续近3小时的公开视频访谈中，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克抛出了一个颇具争议的判断：在未来30至36个月内，部署AI算力最便宜的地方将不再是地球，而是太空。特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克。视觉中国 资料图在与播客博主Dwarkesh Patel以及全球支付公司Stripe联合创始人John Collison的对话中，马斯克系统阐述了其对人工智能扩展路径的最新看法，称AI的最大瓶颈是电力，而当电力成为限制因素时，太空将成为唯一具备长期可扩展性的算力承载。这一判断被外界视为SpaceX从航天公司向“太空基础设施运营商”转型的信号。在马斯克看来，AI是所有业务的底层逻辑，机器人是最具颠覆性的终端形态，而SpaceX正从探索导向转向太空基础设施导向。自动驾驶、人形机器人与航天等都将是物理世界AI的不同落点。为什么是太空：电力瓶颈下的“最便宜AI算力”马斯克在访谈中反复强调，未来AI扩展的核心限制并非芯片本身，而是电力与能源获取能力。他直言，除中国以外，全球主要经济体的电力产出几乎处于停滞状态，而算力需求却仍在指数级增长。“你可以制造越来越多的芯片，但如果它们没有电，就只能堆在仓库里。”马斯克预测，今年年底前，行业内可能出现“芯片堆积如山却无法开机”的局面。“在未来30到36个月内，在太空部署AI将成为成本最低的选择，而且这种优势会越来越大。”马斯克提出，太空没有昼夜循环、云层与大气衰减，太阳能板的有效效率约为地面的5倍；不需要大规模储能电池系统；散热可通过真空辐射完成，而非耗能的地面冷却设施。马斯克给出了一个具体算例：部署约11万台GB300级服务器，在考虑网络、CPU、存储与冷却后，整体功耗约为300兆瓦；当规模扩展至33万台时，就需要1吉瓦电力。这一量级，在地球上获取不仅成本高昂，而且受制于涡轮机、变压器等关键设备。相比之下，他认为，一旦进入太空，“生成token将成为最便宜、也是唯一可持续扩展的方式”。SpaceX：准备至少每年1万次发射在这场访谈中，马斯克明确给出了SpaceX发射频率的数量级目标。他透露，SpaceX正在为每年1万次发射做准备，极端情况下甚至可能提升至2万到3万次。其终极目标是构建一个围绕低地球轨道展开的“轨道数据中心”。美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）在1月披露的信息显示，SpaceX已提交申请，计划发射并运营最多100万颗低轨卫星，用于算力与数据处理。马斯克在访谈中给出了一个更具冲击力的判断：“五年后，我预计我们每年向太空发射并投入运营的AI算力，将超过地球上所有AI算力的总和。”这一目标意味着每年向轨道输送约100吉瓦（GW）的太阳能与算力载荷，相当于约1万次星舰任务。作为对比，目前美国全国的总耗电量约为500吉瓦。在被问及“太空GPU坏了怎么办”时，马斯克的回答并未回避现实难题，而是强调工程路径的转变：当发射与制造成本足够低时，更换将比维修更经济。“太瓦工厂”与芯片时间表：AI5芯片明年量产如果说太空解决的是能源问题，那么芯片则是算力进入太空后的下一道瓶颈。马斯克在访谈中再次提及“TeraFab（太瓦工厂）”这一构想。他直言，当前全球芯片制造体系的产能与扩张速度，无法匹配未来AI与机器人所需的规模。他的思路并非一蹴而就地颠覆现有制造工艺，而是“先用传统设备，通过系统级创新实现数量级放大，再对设备本身进行重构。”在具体时间表上，马斯克给出了指引：特斯拉AI5芯片计划于2027年第二季度左右完成流片并进入量产；AI6芯片将在AI5之后不到一年内推出。这些芯片将首先用于Optimus人形机器人，而非传统数据中心。他同时确认，特斯拉已“拿下能争取到的所有晶圆厂产能”，包括台积电与三星在中国台湾、韩国及美国的工厂。他再次强调电力的重要性说，“在算力进入太空之前，电力是主要限制因素；进入太空之后，芯片才会成为限制因素。”此外，马斯克还提到，他认为三四年后，中国将会生产出极具竞争力的芯片。Optimus被称为“无限印钞机”相比太空算力、AI芯片等，马斯克在访谈中对人形机器人Optimus的评价更为直白。他多次使用一个近乎夸张的说法，将其称为“the infinite money glitch（无限印钞机）”。其理由在于三项指数级增长因素的叠加：数字智能、AI芯片能力、机电操控灵巧度。马斯克指出，机器人的实际价值并非线性叠加，而是三者的乘积。他强调，目前尚未看到任何一款机器人在手部灵巧度上接近Optimus，并明确表示，一些现有的人形机器人方案“并不具备与人类持平的机电操控能力”。在产能规划上，马斯克给出了明确数字：Optimus第3代年产能目标100万台；Optimus第4代：年产能目标 1000万台。训练路径上，特斯拉计划部署至少1万台Optimus，甚至扩展至2万至3万台，通过真实场景下的自对弈训练完成能力提升。未来，Grok将作为中枢，统一调度这些机器人执行建设、制造等复杂任务。谈及中美竞争，马斯克回应说，中国在矿石精炼、材料制造等基础环节已占据绝对优势，“在一些领域，产能大约是世界其他地区总和的两倍”。他警告称，如果美国无法在机器人等领域实现突破性创新，中国将在AI、电动车和人形机器人制造上取得全面主导。这次发声的时间点，正值马斯克旗下多家公司进入资本支出与战略投入高度集中的阶段。特斯拉正持续加大在人工智能芯片、算力和自动化领域的投入；xAI仍处于快速扩张和高资金消耗阶段；而SpaceX则在推进星舰测试与扩大星链商业化规模的同时，成为资本市场关注其估值与长期商业模式的焦点。据路透社此前报道，随着这些业务同步推进，市场和分析人士对马斯克是否能够在多个高投入领域同时保持执行力的讨论不断升温。本期资深编辑  周玉华推荐阅读","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}