How Japan’s “Takaichi trade” may weaken Bitcoin’s short-term outlook

cryptonews

02/09

Japan’s “Takaichi trade” is shifting global capital flows and tightening liquidity, adding short-term downside pressure to Bitcoin as U.S. stocks weaken. Summary Japan’s election win has boosted ...

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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Japan’s “Takaichi trade” may weaken Bitcoin’s short-term outlook\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-09 14:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://crypto.news/japan-takaichi-trade-bitcoin-downside-risk-2026/><strong>cryptonews</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Japan’s “Takaichi trade” is shifting global capital flows and tightening liquidity, adding short-term downside pressure to Bitcoin as U.S. stocks weaken.\n\n\nSummary\n\n\n\nJapan’s election win has boosted ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://crypto.news/japan-takaichi-trade-bitcoin-downside-risk-2026/\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BITX","symbol_name":"2倍比特币期货ETF-Volatility Shares","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://crypto.news/japan-takaichi-trade-bitcoin-downside-risk-2026/","article_id":"2610686386","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"crypto_news_highlight","url":"https://crypto.news/japan-takaichi-trade-bitcoin-downside-risk-2026/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2610686386","pubTimestamp":1770616915,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"crypto_news_highlight","name":"Crypto News"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Japan’s “Takaichi trade” is shifting global capital flows and tightening liquidity, adding short-term downside pressure to Bitcoin as U.S. stocks weaken.Japan’s election win has boosted stocks and weakened the yen.In a Feb. 9 analysis, CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan said the landslide victory of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in the Feb. 8 lower house election has accelerated what traders now call the “Takaichi trade,” a mix of aggressive fiscal policy, tolerance for yen weakness, and support for loose monetary conditions.As JGBs attract fresh capital, inflows into U.S. equity exchange-traded funds have slowed. This has reduced marginal liquidity in global stock markets and added pressure to already fragile sentiment.Dollar strength has added another layer of stress. Yen weakness, persistent U.S.–Japan rate gaps, and defensive demand for dollars have tightened financial conditions, making leveraged trades more expensive to maintain.In risk-off phases, Bitcoin  has tended to","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"crypto.news","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"83042":"华夏比特币-R","BITX":"2倍比特币期货ETF-Volatility Shares","BITO":"比特币期货ETF-ProShares","BK1611":"加密货币现货ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4594":"比特币ETF概念","BK4601":"加密货币现货ETF"},"translate_title":"日本的“高市贸易”如何削弱比特币的短期前景","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"83042":0.6,"BITX":0.6,"BITO":0.6},"content_text":"Japan’s “Takaichi trade” is shifting global capital flows and tightening liquidity, adding short-term downside pressure to Bitcoin as U.S. stocks weaken.\n\n\nSummary\n\n\n\nJapan’s election win has boosted stocks and weakened the yen.\nPortfolio rebalancing is reducing liquidity in U.S. markets.\nEquity weakness is spilling into Bitcoin trading.\n\n\n\nBitcoin is facing fresh near-term pressure as political shifts in Japan reshape global capital flows and reinforce a cautious tone across risk markets.\nIn a Feb. 9 analysis, CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan said the landslide victory of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in the Feb. 8 lower house election has accelerated what traders now call the “Takaichi trade,” a mix of aggressive fiscal policy, tolerance for yen weakness, and support for loose monetary conditions.\nThe ruling Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition secured a two-thirds supermajority, giving the new administration broad room to push stimulus and regulatory reforms.\nMarkets responded quickly. The Nikkei 225 climbed to fresh record highs above 57,000 on Feb. 9, while the yen weakened toward 157 per dollar before stabilizing on intervention talk. Japanese government bonds also came under pressure as investors adjusted to higher spending expectations.\nAt the same time, U.S. equities slipped into correction territory. Over the past seven days, the Nasdaq fell 5.59%, the S&P 500 declined 2.65%, and the Russell 2000 dropped 2.6%, reflecting tighter liquidity and a re-assessment of risk.\nPortfolio rebalancing tightens conditions for risk assets\nAccording to XWIN Research Japan, the current shift is less about capital fleeing the United States and more about global portfolio rebalancing.\n“Japanese government bonds, long sidelined by ultra-low yields, are regaining appeal,” the report said, as fiscal expansion and reflation expectations lift returns.\nAs JGBs attract fresh capital, inflows into U.S. equity exchange-traded funds have slowed. This has reduced marginal liquidity in global stock markets and added pressure to already fragile sentiment.\nAnalyst GugaOnChain said the adjustment is unfolding across multiple asset classes at once. Money is rotating toward domestic Japanese assets, exporters, and selected commodities, while exposure to U.S. growth stocks is being trimmed.\nDollar strength has added another layer of stress. Yen weakness, persistent U.S.–Japan rate gaps, and defensive demand for dollars have tightened financial conditions, making leveraged trades more expensive to maintain.\nIn this setting, risk assets tend to move together. When U.S. equities weaken, portfolio managers often cut crypto exposure at the same time to control overall volatility.\nEquity-led de-risking spills into Bitcoin markets\nXWIN Research Japan said Bitcoin’s recent weakness fits this pattern.\nIn risk-off phases, Bitcoin (BTC) has tended to track U.S. equities, allowing stock market selling to spill into crypto. The current decline, the firm argued, is driven by cross-asset risk management rather than deterioration in on-chain activity.\nCryptoQuant’s cross-asset indicators show that simultaneous equity corrections raise the probability of Bitcoin downside even when long-term holders are not selling. Recent price moves reflect futures unwinds and position reductions, not broad capitulation.\nThis dynamic has been visible in derivatives markets, where open interest has fallen and leverage has been cut over the past two weeks. Traders appear more focused on preserving capital than on chasing rebounds.\nFrom a medium- to long-term perspective, the outlook diverges.\nAfter the Feb. 8 election delivered a supermajority, the Takaichi administration has now gained the political space to advance structural reforms. Officials have positioned Web3 as a developing industry, and stablecoin laws and tax adjustments are expected later in 2026. \nThese actions could eventually attract institutional participation and strengthen Japan’s standing as a regulated hub for digital assets. \nBut for the time being, Bitcoin is still vulnerable to global risk cycles. As long as U.S. stocks are still under pressure and capital flows adjust to Japan’s fiscal pivot, short-term downside risks are likely to persist even if longer-term fundamentals hold.\n\n\n\n\n\n                Read more:\n            \n\n                Bitcoin investors face ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ quantum threat","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}