Al Root

The wild ride for lithium investors continued after Albemarle reported its fourth-quarter earnings. The quarter looked solid and the lithium miner's guidance was impressive, but the stock was falling ahead of the open Thursday.

Albemarle announced an adjusted per-share loss of 53 cents from sales of $1.4 billion. Wall Street was looking for a 42-cent loss from sales of $1.3 billion.

It was an earnings miss, but better than the $1.09 per-share loss in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Losses narrowed as lithium prices rose. Benchmark spot lithium prices averaged roughly $9,500 per metric ton in the fourth quarter, up from about $8,500 a year ago.

Those prices are a far cry from the 2022 peaks of more than $80,000 per metric ton. Back then, EV demand was stressing the lithium supply/demand balance.

A combination of slower-than-expected EV demand and lithium production expansion pushed down prices and hurt industry profitability. Now, prices have rebounded to about $19,000 per metric ton, boosted by supply curtailments and higher demand for utility-scale battery storage.

The improvement is reflected in Albemarle's guidance. If lithium prices average about $20,000 per metric ton, Albemarle should produce sales of about $5.85 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, of about $2.5 billion.

Wall Street currently projects $5.2 billion in 2026 sales and $1.5 billion in Ebitda. Guidance looks strong, but it's dependent on commodity pricing.

"Overall, solid quarter, but the bar continues to be a moving target given the recent lithium spot price action," wrote Citi analyst Patrick Cunningham on Wednesday.

Coming into Thursday trading, Albemarle stock was up 117% over the past six months. Expectations were running high. Shares were down 3.1% in premarket trading at $170 apiece.

While demand growth outpaced supply growth in 2025, tightening the market, questions remain about how tight the market can get in 2026 and beyond.

Cunningham, for his part, rates Albemarle shares Hold and has a $180 price target. Overall, 50% of analysts covering the company rate shares Buy, according to FactSet. The aveage Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. The average analyst price target for Albemarle shares is about $183.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@barrons.com

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February 12, 2026 05:26 ET (10:26 GMT)

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