Rivian Automotive (RIVN) reported Q4 results that topped expectations but issued 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance below consensus, reflecting "higher commodity inflation" and rising operating expenses, RBC Capital Markets said in a Thursday report.

The electric vehicle manufacturer's management projected an adjusted EBITDA loss at the mid-point of $1.95 billion for 2026, a wider deficit than the $1.83 billion loss Wall Street forecast, amid commodity inflation and high spending ahead of the critical "R2" compact SUV launch, the report said.

While a "higher mix" of electric delivery vans and strong software margins provided a temporary boost, the investment bank remains cautious due to projected cash burn through 2028 and a "crowded" competitive landscape, according to the report.

Consequently, RBC maintained a sector perform rating and a $14 price target on Rivian, adding that the company may need "additional financing as early as 2028," unless it secures significant government loans or meets funding conditions from Volkswagen.

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