Humana's (HUM) heavy membership growth could place its Medicare Advantage book at risk for higher-than-expected cost pressure amid a bleak reimbursement backdrop, RBC Capital Markets said in a Thursday research report.

While Medicare Advantage peers continue to trim unprofitable membership to drive margin, Humana's initial guidance implies individual MA growth of 25% in 2026, analysts wrote.

While the brokerage said it acknowledges management's confidence in positioning this year, it is shifting to a more cautious stance in 2026 as the potential for higher medical costs this year weighs on the risk/reward profile for the stock.

RBC said it now expects 2026 adjusted EPS of $9.01 from $12.20 earlier. For 2027, the brokerage cut its adjusted EPS guidance to $15.15 from $18.58.

The brokerage said it downgraded the stock to sector perform from outperform and cut its price target to $189 per share from $322.

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