Rivian plans to increase vehicle deliveries by 53% in 2026
R2 SUV seen as key to expanding beyond premium lineup
Capex for 2026 expected between $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion
Feb 12 (Reuters) - Rivian Automotive RIVN.O forecast a 53% jump in 2026 deliveries on Thursday, tracking closely with Wall Street expectations, as the maker of R1 electric SUVs and pickup trucks prepares to roll out its more affordable R2 SUVs.
The new model, priced at about $45,000 and competing with Tesla's best-selling Model Y SUV, is seen as critical for Rivian's success as demand for EVs has weakened following the expiry of federal tax credits last year.
Volume of R1 vehicles and Rivian's delivery vans will largely remain the same in 2026, Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe told Reuters. "The growth is really, of course, what we see in R2," he said.
However, preparing for the R2 launch in the second quarter, along with Rivian's efforts to expand in-house autonomous driving features, will be capital-intensive.
Capital expenditure is expected to nearly double to between $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion, Rivian said, higher than the $1.92 billion analysts were expecting, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization is expected to be between $2.1 billion and $1.8 billion, compared with estimates of $1.81 billion.
The automaker expects to deliver between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles this year, largely in line with estimates of 64,130 vehicles in 2026, according to Visible Alpha data.
Rivian delivered 42,247 units in 2025, down from 51,579 units a year ago, slightly missing Wall Street estimates.
The fourth quarter marked the first full reporting period after the $7,500 federal tax credit on EV purchases expired at the end of September, raising prices and slowing EV deliveries, including for market leader Tesla TSLA.O.
Analysts expect the cheaper R2 model will help Rivian offset the loss from the expiry of tax credits and spur demand, as a lower price tag would attract a larger swathe of buyers.
However, they also anticipate older and more expensive R1T and R1S models will still dominate deliveries for the year.
On average, Wall Street expects 13,400 R2 vehicles to be delivered in 2026, representing about a fifth of the total delivery estimate for the year.
Revenue for the fourth quarter was $1.29 billion, beating analysts' average estimate of $1.26 billion.
Cash and cash equivalents stood at $3.58 billion at the end of December, compared with $4.44 billion at the end of September.
(Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)
((Akash.Sriram@thomsonreuters.com; On X as @HoodieOnVeshti; +91-99017-77617;))