US equity index futures red; Nasdaq 100 off most, down ~0.7%
Feb NY Fed Manufacturing index 7.10 vs 6.98 estimate
Euro STOXX 600 index ~flat
Dollar rises; crude, bitcoin decline; gold down >1%
US 10-Year Treasury yield edges down to ~4.04%
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MEGA-CAPS MAY BE STUMBLING, BUT THE EQUAL-WEIGHTED S&P 500 IS RUMBLING
With mega-caps stumbling so far in 2026, the equal-weighted S&P 500 index .SPXEW is handily outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500 index .SPX.
Indeed, the Mag 7 ETF MAGS.Z, whose members account for more than 30% of the SPX's $61.82 trillion market cap, is trading down more than 7% year-to-date. With this, the SPXEW has advanced 5.8% vs. an SPX decline of just over 0.1%.
Of note, since October 29, when the SPXEW/SPX ratio fell to 1.107, or its lowest level since April 2003, the equal-weighted index has outperformed the cap-weighted index.
The ratio has reclaimed its 200-day moving average $(DMA)$, and on Friday, it ended at 1.201, which is its highest level since July 2025.
As long as the ratio's 200-DMA, which ended Friday at 1.167, now acts as support, the equal-weighted index appears biased to continue to outperform the cap-weighted version. The ratio's April 2025 high was at 1.256.
Meanwhile, the SPXEW has scored 13 record closing highs so far this year versus just four for the SPX. Additionally, the SPXEW/SPX ratio is on pace for its biggest monthly gain since April 2009.
(Terence Gabriel)
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EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:
BEWARE THE YEAR OF THE HORSE CLICK HERE
STOXX OFF TO STEADY START, CALM UNDER THE SURFACE CLICK HERE
BEFORE THE BELL: EUROPEAN FUTURES DIP CLICK HERE
QUIET MARKETS, LOUD DIPLOMACY: ALL EYES ON IRAN CLICK HERE
SPXEWSPXRatio02172026 https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/buzz/xmpjqzymjvr/image-1771329075850.png
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)