Somnigroup International (SGI), the maker of Tempur-Pedic, Sealy and Stearns & Foster mattresses and the owner of Mattress Firm, issued 2026 guidance that came in more cautious than expected, UBS Securities said Wednesday in a report.

The company on Tuesday projected 2026 earnings per share of $3 to $3.40, below UBS's expectation of $3.20 to $3.40. The securities firm trimmed its 2026 EPS estimate to $3.35 from $3.40, noting that Somnigroup still appears well-positioned to reach the midpoint or better of its range as incremental margins and modest organic growth build on a $2.70 EPS base for 2025.

UBS estimates $0.35 of EPS contribution next year from the Mattress Firm integration and another $0.05 from recording a full year of Mattress Firm results versus 11 months in 2025.

The bedding industry was down mid-single digits in 2025 and is likely to be only flat to slightly up in 2026, making Somnigroup's move to raise its long-term EPS target to $5.15 in 2028 more notable, UBS said.

UBS lowered its price target on Somnigroup stock to $115 from $122 and maintained its buy rating.

Price: 91.41, Change: +3.63, Percent Change: +4.13