MW Retailers could be big winners in a repeal of Trump's tariffs. Here's why the stocks aren't rising.

By Bill Peters

Target, Nike and Hasbro stand to be big beneficiaries as the Supreme Court ruling could lower costs, analysts say, but stocks of retail giants like Walmart and Costco fell

Nike last year said it faced around $1.5 billion in tariff costs.

As markets - and corporate legal teams - digest the Supreme Court's ruling striking down U.S. emergency-powers tariffs, household names like big-box retail chain Target, sneaker giant Nike and toymaker Hasbro could have the most to gain, barring any resistance from the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, the uncertainty over how President Donald Trump will respond to the ruling, and because the ruling was mostly expected, shares of several potential beneficiaries gave up early gains.

Jefferies analyst Randal Konik wrote in a Friday note that Nike $(NKE)$, which last year said it faced $1.5 billion in tariff costs, stood to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the ruling, as it would lift a lot of pressure on profit margins. He said another potential winner, jewelry chain Signet Jewelers $(SIG)$, got roughly 50% of its product from India.

Nike's stock shot up as much 4.4% in the moments immediately after the tariff ruling was handed down but then reversed course to decline 1.6% in afternoon trading. Signet shares were up 1.4% but pared earlier gains of as much as 5%.

And D.A. Davidson's Michael Baker wrote that Target (TGT) and electronics retailer Best Buy $(BBY)$ were likely to see the biggest upsides from the ruling, noting that they were "retailers that are big importers with somewhat limited pricing power."

Target's stock was down 0.5% in recent trading, after reversing an earlier postruling intraday gain of as much as 2.9%. Best Buy shares gave up 3.7% but had also been up as much as 2.9% earlier.

He said Hasbro $(HAS)$ and rival Mattel $(MAT)$, as well as collectibles maker Funko $(FNKO)$, could also get a breather. The toy industry relies heavily on China to manufacture products. UBS analysts in 2024 said the industry had "more than 80% exposure to?China."

Baker said that mass retailers like Walmart $(WMT)$ and Costco $(COST)$ also stood to benefit, if perhaps not as much. Those companies, he said, "were less impacted than other retailers because of their scale and other mitigation factors, including relatively low import exposure, that reduced the overall tariff impact since Liberation Day."

After April 2 of last year, a date Trump branded "liberation day" to mark the beginning of a sweeping new tariff regime covering goods imported to the U.S. by global trading partners, markets sharply recoiled. Worries surged about the higher costs faced by U.S. businesses and the higher prices that would be charged to American consumer. Those tariffs landed on top of pandemic-related supply-chain disruptions and inflationary pressures that had kept some people from buying discretionary items including toys, sneakers, clothes and electronics.

Shares of many big retailers were, perhaps counterintuitively, down on Friday, amid a sense that gains from the Supreme Court's ruling against Trump may have already been priced in.

Walmart's stock was down 2.7% in recent afternoon trading as Costco shares eased 0.6%.

Some observers, joined by Trump in a Friday news conference, have pointed out that the U.S. has other ways to levy import taxes. Baker said that, while consumers might see lower prices as a result of the ruling, the Trump administration could be expected to search for ways to push back.

"Notably, even with the likely positive impact to retailers, the stock reaction is muted, as the market seemed to have anticipated this outcome, at least according to prediction markets," he said.

Even as small businesses praised the court's 6-3 decision, pursuing refunds could be a lengthy and costly process.

"While the ruling eliminates the legal authority for these tariffs, questions remain around remedies - most notably whether companies will be entitled to refunds for duties already paid," Jefferies analyst Konik said.

Don't miss: Will American companies get tariff refunds after the Supreme Court decision? What we know so far.

-Bill Peters

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 20, 2026 14:00 ET (19:00 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.