By Shaina Mishkin

Home prices grew more quickly than expected in December, according to S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index. Prices in 20 large metropolitan areas grew 1.4% from one year prior, more than the 0.95% increase consensus had expected. Nationally, prices grew 1.3%.

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Economists expect that home prices rose less than 1% in December in 20 major cities, according to estimates for one closely watched index. Still, buyers in New Jersey can expect a much different experience from those in Texas this spring.

Prices measured by an S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index tracking changes in 20 large metropolitan areas are expected to have risen 0.95% in December from one year prior, according to FactSet consensus estimates. That would be weaker than last month's 1.4% gain and the slowest annual increase since July 2023.

Home prices have long since cooled from their frothy pandemic gains, though they remain over 50% higher than they were before the pandemic. At a time when homes remain pricey and mortgage rates are well off their sub-3% lows, first-time buyers broadly have been hesitant while existing homeowners have few financial reasons to upsize or downsize.

Dynamics aren't the same everywhere. A Redfin analysis published Monday found that home sellers outnumbered buyers by more than 600,000 nationally in January. "When sellers outnumber buyers, buyers typically hold the negotiating power because they have a lot of options to choose from," the Redfin report said.

Some of that buyer power is seasonal, since January tends to be slow. But the brokerage's report suggests that some markets have more room for negotiation than others.

When filtered to focus specifically on single-family homes in the 50 metros Redfin examined, buyers have the most power in San Antonio, Austin, Texas; and Nashville, Tenn. In each of these metro areas, sellers outnumber buyers by two-to-one or more.

January's most competitive metropolitan areas, meanwhile, were in the Northeast and Midwest: In Newark, N.J., there were more than one-and-a-half buyers for every seller. Nassau County, N.Y., and Milwaukee were close behind, with more than one buyer for every seller.

Varied regional supply and demand dynamics will likely show up as price changes of different magnitude when the Case-Shiller data is released at 9.m. Tuesday. In November, the most recent month for which data is available, prices rose most in Chicago, New York, and Cleveland, and fell most in Tampa, Dallas, and Phoenix.

Write to Shaina Mishkin at shaina.mishkin@dowjones.com

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February 24, 2026 09:01 ET (14:01 GMT)

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