OPENING CALL
Investors were seemingly shrugging off Trump's marathon State of the Union address and focusing again on what has been driving recent volatility-AI.
Stock futures were a touch higher as investors geared up for earnings from Nvidia, which could help decide whether the AI boom still has legs.
Markets around the world rode the boost in sentiment, with Japan's Nikkei Stock Average closing at a record and South Korea's benchmark rising above 6000 for the first time.
It has gained more than 40% this year- putting it among the world's top-performing markets.
Closer to home, bankers now expect the few mega- offerings from SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic to dominate the IPO market this year and that most private tech companies will be forced to keep waiting after the AI-induced fears rattled markets this week.
And while investors might eventually talk themselves down from some of their worst fears about AI disruption of software companies, don't expect private-asset managers to bounce right back.
Private markets giant Blue Owl hosted a call Monday to reassure wealth advisers who connect clients to its funds in response to retail investor panic.
Many advisers said they haven't lost faith in private credit and are counseling their clients to stay put-saying that fears surrounding Blue Owl aren't tied to evidence of losses or poor underwriting, but rather a misunderstanding
However, MFS Investment Management said investors should be cautious.
It said that public versus private was a hot topic in its IM's client meetings, but the real question should be how large should one's exposure to private credit be?
"Not too much is our short answer."
Stocks to Watch
Axon Enterprises rose after it said its efforts at providing AI-driven services to law enforcement clients led to bookings.
Cava sales rose on higher prices and better-than-expected performance at new restaurants. Shares gained 9%
HP lowered expectations for the fiscal year as memory chip costs weighed on margins. Shares fell roughly 5% premarket.
Lucid is laying off around 12% of its U.S. workforce. Shares dropped roughly 4.5%.
Workday said it expected slower growth for subscription revenue. The stock retreated 9%.
Netflix was up more than 1% before the bell. Paramount's revised Warner offer is its latest effort to derail rival bidder Netflix.
Watch For:
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Earnings from Bank of Montreal, Nvidia, Paramount , retailers Lowe's and TJX.
Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:
-Skeptical Investors Are Hunting for Ways to Short the AI Frenzy
-Violent Militias Stand Between the U.S. and Venezuela's Vast Mineral Riches
-Key Takeaways From Trump's State of the Union Address
MARKET WRAPS
Forex:
The dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies.
Risk-sensitive currencies could fall if Nvidia's earnings miss expectations, ING said, adding that disappointing earnings could have a larger impact on risky assets than above-forecast earnings.
"With some investor unease around AI stocks still lingering, Nvidia will probably need to beat consensus and offer strong guidance to provide meaningful reassurance."
Bonds:
Treasury yields were slightly higher , with the curve steepening modestly and little reaction to the State of the Union speech.
"President Trump declared a booming economy and a 'golden age' message at the same time as delivering several combative attacks on Democrats and the Supreme Court," Danske Bank said.
Energy:
Oil edged higher as markets remained highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, continuing to factor in a sizable risk premium ahead of U.S.-Iran talks.
"Oil prices weakened yesterday amid hopes that the U.S. and Iran will find a diplomatic solution to their standoff," ING said.
"However, the build-up of U.S. military assets in the Middle East means the risk of action remains very real."
In his State of the Union address, Trump said he would prefer a diplomatic resolution to the crisis with Iran, but made clear he would never allow Tehran to obtain a nuclear weapon.
Metals:
Gold
Gold rose back above $5,200 as uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and geopolitical risks in the Middle East continued to support safe-haven demand.
"Gold has stabilised above $5,000/oz, regaining more than half of the losses from its sharp correction earlier this month," MUFG said.
"However, expectations that U.S. interest rates may remain elevated for longer following stronger labour market data and cautious signals from Fed officials, could limit further upside for non-yielding gold."
Gold Chart
Comex gold futures' overall technical setup remained bullish, RHB said, based on the daily chart.
The commodity should resume upside movement toward the $5,500 level, following any consolidation.
Copper
Prices held above $13,000 a metric ton as Chinese buyers returned from the Lunar New Year holiday, boosting import demand.
The Yangshan premium rose to a two-month high, signaling stronger purchasing interest, according to ING.
However, inventories remained elevated on both the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the LME, indicating the global market was still well supplied.
"While stronger Chinese imports should help absorb some excess material, a sustained tightening in spreads will likely require clearer evidence of inventory draws, both in China and on the LME."
ANZ said sentiment was buoyed by prospects of lower U.S. tariffs after the Supreme Court ruling , adding that, even as U.S. levies on copper were still in effect, "The less punitive charges should be a boost for [China's] metal-intensive exports."
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
HSBC Annual Profit Beats Consensus, Lifts Key Targets
HSBC Holdings' annual profit fell but topped market expectations as the lender pressed ahead with efforts to simplify its sprawling operations and strengthen its position in the U.K. and Hong Kong.
Europe's biggest bank by assets has been undergoing a broad organizational revamp under Chief Executive Georges Elhedery, who took over in the fall of 2024. Since then, he has set about cutting costs, streamlining its businesses and accelerating a pivot to Asia, where the lender makes most of its profit, pushing for HSBC become a more "simple, more agile, focused bank."
Diageo Cuts Guidance as New CEO Targets Portfolio Growth
Guinness maker Diageo cut its guidance for the fiscal year on weakness in the U.S., as new chief executive Dave Lewis looks to build a larger portfolio in a bid to revive the U.K. drinks giant's fortunes.
Home to brands like Johnnie Walker and Smirnoff Vodka, Diageo said it expects a 2% to 3% decline in organic net sales, citing weakness in its U.S. business and Chinese white spirits. Organic operating profit growth for the year is expected to be flat to low-single-digits, the company said.
SoftBank-Backed Wayve Raises $1.2 Billion From Microsoft, Nvidia, Automakers
U.K. self-driving technology provider Wayve raised $1.2 billion in a series D investment round, as it seeks to scale the commercial deployment of its driving tech.
The round, led by venture capital firms Eclipse Capital, Balderton Capital and a SoftBank Group fund, pushes Wayve's post-money valuation to $8.6 billion, the car startup said Wednesday.
Boston Beer Posts Lower Fourth-Quarter Revenue
Boston Beer reported lower revenue in the fourth quarter and said shifting tariff policies could significantly impact its guidance for the year.
The beverage company, which produces Samuel Adams beer and Truly Hard Seltzer, recorded a loss of $22.5 million, or $2.12 a share, compared with a loss of $38.8 million, or $3.38 a share, a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting a loss of $2.67 a share.
German Consumer Confidence Weakens as Geopolitical Uncertainty Reigns
Consumer sentiment in Germany edged lower as uncertainty weighed on confidence despite better recent news on the wider economy.
The consumer-climate index, published Wednesday by research groups GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions, declined to minus 24.7 in its forecast for March from minus 24.2 in February. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal last week had expected an upturn to minus 23.0.
Markets Eye Japan PM's BOJ Picks for Hints on Rate Path
TOKYO-Japan's government has nominated candidates for two positions at the central bank, a move that could be viewed as a chance to influence monetary policy in a more dovish direction.
Sanae Takaichi's administration has nominated two professors that, like the prime minister herself, are considered to be in favor of looser monetary policy, analysts say.
Germany Shows How Difficult It Is to Rewire Relations With China
BERLIN-Long dependent on the U.S. for its security and on China for its growth, Germany is trying to chart its own path. But a pair of high-stakes visits by its new leader to Beijing and Washington over the next week shows the process will be neither easy nor fast.
The trips highlight the dilemma facing many middle powers that are seeking to reduce their dependencies on rival great powers while not exposing their defenses or hurting their economies in the short term.
Bill Gates Apologizes to Foundation Staff Over Epstein Ties
Bill Gates apologized to staff of the Gates Foundation over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, admitting he made mistakes that had cast a cloud over the philanthropic group while insisting he didn't participate in Epstein's crimes.
In a town hall on Tuesday, the Microsoft co-founder acknowledged that he had two affairs with Russian women that Epstein later discovered, but that they didn't involve Epstein's victims. "I did nothing illicit. I saw nothing illicit," Gates said, according to a recording reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
Judge Rejects Government Request to Search Washington Post Reporter's Devices
A federal judge rejected a Justice Department request to search devices seized from a Washington Post reporter as part of an investigation into alleged mishandling of classified information by a government contractor, ruling that the court would carry out the review.
Federal Bureau of Investigation agents executed a search warrant at the Virginia home of the reporter, Hannah Natanson, in January as part of an investigation of Aurelio Perez-Lugones, a systems engineer and information-technology specialist for a government contractor in Maryland with a top-secret security clearance. He was charged with unlawful retention of national-defense information.
Write to clare.kinloch@wsj.com
TODAY IN CANADA
Earnings:
Bank of Montreal
Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund
Hut 8 Corp.
kneat.com Inc.
Leon's Furniture Ltd
Major Drilling Group International
Northland Power
Stantec
Economic Indicators $(ET)$:
0830 Q4 Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises
Stocks to Watch:
BTB Real Estate Investment Trust 4Q Loss C$932,000
Cargojet Raises Quarterly Dividend to C$0.385 Vs. C$0.35;4Q Adj EPS CAD 1.47;4Q Adj Net Income CAD; 4Q Adj EBITDA CAD 95M; 4Q EPS CAD 1.76;
Cargojet 4Q Free Cash Flow Loss CAD 9.8M; 4Q Revenue CAD 284.7M; 4Q Adj EBITDA Margin 33.4%; 4Q Net Income CAD 26.6M;Cargojet Reports 4Q Revenue of CAD 284.7 Million
Denison Mines Announces Final Investment Decision for Phoenix In-Situ Recovery Uranium Mine; Construction Activities for Phoenix Planned to Commence in March 2026
Element Fleet Management 4Q Loss/Shr 15c
Northwest Healthcare Properties REIT 4Q Adj FFO Per Share CAD 0.12; 4Q Adj FFO CAD 29.5M; 4Q Net Operating Income CAD 79.5M; Reports 4Q Net Operating Income of CAD 79.5 Million
Pulse Seismic 4Q EBITDA CAD 4.8M; 4Q Free Cash Flow CAD 3.9M; 4Q Revenue CAD 6.6M; 4Q Net Income CAD 1.7M; 4Q Revenue of CAD 6.6 Million
Topaz Energy 4Q EPS C$0.21; 4Q Adj EPS C$0.21
Expected Major Events for Wednesday
00:01/UK: Jan Zoopla House Price Index
05:00/JPN: Jan Supermarket sales
05:30/JPN: Jan Tokyo area department store sales
05:30/JPN: Jan Nationwide department store sales
07:00/GER: 4Q GDP - Detailed breakdown
07:00/GER: Mar GfK consumer climate survey
07:45/FRA: Feb Consumer confidence survey
08:59/JPN: Feb Monthly Economic Report
12:00/US: 02/20 MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
13:30/CAN: 4Q Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises
15:30/US: 02/20 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
23:50/JPN: Feb Provisional Trade Statistics for 1st 10 days of Month
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Expected Earnings for Wednesday
APi Group Corp (APG) is expected to report $0.26 for 4Q.
Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARG.T) is expected to report for 4Q.
Archrock Inc $(AROC)$ is expected to report $0.39 for 4Q.
Aspen Aerogels Inc (ASPN) is expected to report $-0.26 for 4Q.
Astec Industries Inc $(ASTE)$ is expected to report $0.54 for 4Q.
Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc - Series A $(BATRA)$ is expected to report for 4Q.
Avista Corp $(AVA)$ is expected to report $1.02 for 4Q.
Bank of Montreal (BMO,BMO.T) is expected to report $3.08 for 1Q.
Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL) is expected to report $0.79 for 4Q.
Bloomin' Brands Inc $(BLMN)$ is expected to report $0.25 for 4Q.
Blue Foundry Bancorp (BLFY) is expected to report $-0.10 for 4Q.
CS Disco Inc (LAW) is expected to report $-0.14 for 4Q.
Chatham Lodging Trust $(CLDT)$ is expected to report $0.05 for 4Q.
Clear Secure Inc (YOU) is expected to report $0.32 for 4Q.
Driven Brands Holdings Inc (DRVN) is expected to report $0.23 for 4Q.
Federal Signal Corp $(FSS)$ is expected to report $1.07 for 4Q.
Graham Holdings Co $(GHC)$ is expected to report $14.05 for 4Q.
HNI Corp (HNI) is expected to report $0.91 for 4Q.
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc - Class A $(HOV)$ is expected to report $-1.25 for 1Q.
International Money Express Inc $(IMXI)$ is expected to report $0.45 for 4Q.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc $(IONS)$ is expected to report $-1.32 for 4Q.
Loblaw Cos Ltd (L.T,LBLCF) is expected to report $0.67 for 4Q.
Lowe's Cos $(LOW)$ is expected to report $1.92 for 4Q.
MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI) is expected to report $0.50 for 4Q.
Mineralys Therapeutics Inc $(MLYS)$ is expected to report $-0.58 for 4Q.
National Bank of Canada (NA.T,NTIOF) is expected to report $2.98 for 1Q.
Newmark Group Inc $(NMRK)$ is expected to report $0.28 for 4Q.
ODDITY Tech Ltd $(ODD)$ is expected to report $0.04 for 4Q.
Owens Corning $(OC)$ is expected to report $1.35 for 4Q.
Photronics Inc $(PLAB)$ is expected to report $0.54 for 1Q.
Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW) is expected to report $0.07 for 4Q.
SkyWater Technology Inc $(SKYT)$ is expected to report $-0.15 for 4Q.
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc (SWX) is expected to report $1.33 for 4Q.
Steven Madden Ltd $(SHOO)$ is expected to report $0.48 for 4Q.
TJX Cos $(TJX)$ is expected to report $1.38 for 4Q.
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd (TVE.T) is expected to report for 4Q.
Tri Pointe Homes Inc (TPH) is expected to report $0.78 for 4Q.
UWM Holdings Corp $(UWMC)$ is expected to report $0.07 for 4Q.
United Therapeutics Corp $(UTHR)$ is expected to report $6.67 for 4Q.
XPEL Inc (XPEL,XPEL.U-V) is expected to report $0.45 for 4Q.
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ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS
ACV Auctions Cut to Neutral From Buy by Citigroup
ACV Auctions Raised to Outperform From Market Perform by Barrington Research
Allurion Technologies Raised to Buy From Neutral by Chardan Capital
Arcellx Cut to Hold From Buy by Stifel
Arcellx Cut to Hold From Buy by Truist Securities
Arcellx Cut to In-Line From Outperform by Evercore ISI Group
Arcellx Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by Leerink Partners
Arcellx Cut to Neutral From Buy by Citigroup
Arcellx Cut to Neutral From Buy by UBS
Blue Owl Capital Cut to Hold From Buy by Deutsche Bank
Booking Holdings Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Morgan Stanley
BXP Cut to Neutral From Outperform by Mizuho
Cheniere Energy Cut to Equal-Weight From Overweight by Morgan Stanley
Domino's Pizza Raised to Overweight From Neutral by JP Morgan
DT Midstream Cut to Hold From Buy by Stifel
Enhabit Cut to Neutral From Buy by UBS
Fox Corp. Raised to Buy From Neutral by Seaport Global
Freshpet Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Morgan Stanley
GATX Cut to Neutral From Buy by Citigroup
Gossamer Bio Cut to Market Perform From Outperform by Leerink Partners
Gossamer Bio Cut to Neutral From Outperform by Wedbush
Gossamer Bio Cut to Underweight From Overweight by Barclays
Hims & Hers Health Cut to Neutral From Buy by BTIG
KeyCorp Raised to Neutral From Underperform by Baird
Kilroy Realty Cut to Underperform From Neutral by Mizuho
PPL Corp Raised to Overweight From Equal-Weight by Barclays
Qualcomm Raised to Buy From Hold by Loop Capital
Qualcomm Raised to Equal-Weight From Underweight by Wells Fargo
This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 25, 2026 06:01 ET (11:01 GMT)
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