Prices were up again week to week and shot higher Sunday evening after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, with missiles fired back and forth throughout the weekend.

Although West Texas Intermediate and Brent were higher week to week by about 1%, some of the upside was limited by a huge build in U.S. crude oil supplies and the anticipated OPEC+ meeting over the weekend, which saw the cartel announce an April production increase of 206,000 b/d.

The Saturday morning attack led to an anticipation of where oil markets would open on Sunday evening. At the open, Brent stood at $81.57/bbl and topped $82 shortly thereafter. This morning, prices are just below $80. WTI opened at $75/bbl and hit a high of $75.33/bbl shortly after the open.

For Brent, most of the action last week was in the May contract that is now the prompt month, and while the lightly traded April contract meandered by about 1%, the move in May was a more significant 2.2% or $1.57 on the week, leading to a $72.87/bbl settlement on Friday and moving a little bit ahead of the expiring April contract after being backwardated most of the month.

This is a different situation than last summer, when the U.S. bombed Iran's nuclear infrastructure and the market spiked, again on a Sunday evening, only to settle lower by Monday afternoon. President Trump has said the campaign could last weeks and there is a chance of significant damage to energy infrastructure.

There may be near-term impacts from the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz. While Iranian leaders have said they have no intention of closing the strait, protocols concerning safety, compliance and insurance have brought marine traffic through the strait to a halt. About 20% of the world's oil and refined products flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

Lost in the shuffle is OPEC+ going back to raising production with the announcement of a 206,000 b/d increase in April after a pause through the first quarter of 2026. OPEC+ in its news release did not acknowledge the weekend's military action, taking more of a "hear no evil, see no evil" approach.

The past week was characterized by significant buying as total open interest in WTI through Thursday jumped to more than 2.13 million contracts, some of the highest open interest levels in just over four years in the weeks leading into the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, total Brent open interest stands at more than 3.275 million contracts.

Oil futures "gapped up" at the open Sunday evening and with the recent price rally, the market wondering how high prices could go. Market direction will likely be more driven by supply and demand than technicals this week. One area that may offer some resistance for WTI is the 200-week moving average at $75.73, which is just slightly above the highs for Monday. Brent has topped the 200-week average with a spike in prices. The fourth-quarter low to second-quarter high is still in play, and applying the typical average increase would still target prices that are a few dollars higher than this morning's highs.

Refined products had a strong week and with the March contract expiring, the April contract moves into the front-month position, and with that, the low-RVP gasoline contract is coming into play.

March went out on a strong note for RBOB and ULSD, with both contracts up more than 8cts week to week. With significant backwardation in ULSD and contango in RBOB futures, this week saw the April contracts narrow the spreads, leading to less of a gap to fill at least in the case of diesel.

April ULSD futures rallied nearly 12cts, a 4.75% move on the week and narrowing the spread with the March contract to around 7.5cts. A week ago, that spread was pushing 11cts. Meanwhile for RBOB, April was pushing toward a 30ct premium versus March, but that, too, narrowed to about 21cts by the end of the week as April RBOB was up about 4.25cts week to week.

Like crude oil, gasoline and ULSD futures spiked, with the ULSD market seeing the more significant move as the April contract topped the $3/gal level overnight while April RBOB topped $2.40/gal.

The diesel move is much more significant as gasoil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange have spiked by more than $150/mt. Diesel supply concerns are much greater than those of gasoline for the time being and there could be a repeat of 2022, when diesel prices spiked and crack spreads topped $75/bbl in June. Based on the most recent quotes, the diesel crack spread stands at more than $52/bbl.

There is limited short-term impact to U.S. supplies of refined products, and gasoline inventories are quite comfortable ahead of last year and the seasonal norm for this time of year. However, complications in the shipment of Middle Eastern crude oil may call for replacement crude. Based on preliminary data from the Energy Information Administration, the U.S. brought in 440,000 b/d from Saudi Arabia and 160,000 b/d from Iraq.

It's no surprise that with the recent buying and the Sunday spike, RBOB and ULSD futures are overbought from a momentum-tracking standpoint. Considering the current situation, there's a good chance that these markets can stay overbought for some time.

Like crude oil, gasoline futures also have seasonality on its side. Once again, the average targets for RBOB are still some 35cts higher than Monday's highs.

The spike in diesel, though, did bring a significant development from a ratio retracement standpoint. Taking the entire range from the 2022 highs near $5.86/gal and the May 2025 low of $1.9338/gal, the 23.6% retracement at $2.8603/gal has been easily eclipsed. Technical analysts note that is a significant development.

Other elements to watch:

-Traders will be watching for news on assets in the Middle East. Overnight, Saudi Aramco's 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura was reportedly shutdown after a drone strike. Meanwhile, OPIS reported that refineries in Kuwait were operating normally, according to a spokesperson.

-Natural gas prices have spiked, particularly in the European TTF contract. Qatar has halted LNG production after a drone strike at its Ras Laffan Industrial City complex.

-Economic releases this week are likely to have limited impacts on markets this week. The February jobs report has the potential to be the most impactful this week. However, the situation in the Middle East is likely to overrule any economic data release.

-There were some massive rack moves over the weekend in anticipation of a strong market open on Sunday evening. Multiple suppliers up and down the East Coast raised gasoline and diesel prices by 15-30cts/gal.

-Retail gasoline prices average $2.997/gal, according to AAA to start the week. That price is assuredly going to rise this week. Prices are still about 10cts below year-ago levels, but that is likely to change by the end of the week.

This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

Reporting by Denton Cinquegrana, dcinquegrana@opisnet.com ; Editing by Michael Kelly, mkelly@opisnet.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

U.S Gulf Coast refined spot prices were up by double-digits Monday morning on NYMEX buying on the uncertainty of the Iran conflict.

Spot gasoline prices increased by more than 10cts on futures gains, which outpaced subcent trade level losses.

CBOB for Cycle 15 delivery was heard traded at 26ct discount to the April RBOB NYMEX, a decrease of 0.625cts from Friday's average. Cash prices increased 10.73cts, bringing the spot price to $2.139/gal as of 9:39 a.m. ET.

Premium CBOB lowered by 0.75ct to an 8.5ct NYMEX discount, and spot prices rose by 10.6cts to $2.314/gal.

Cycle 15 regular gasoline continued at a 12ct discount to futures, and cash prices ticked up 11.35cts to $2.279/gal.

Prompt Cycle 15 RBOB discounts to futures widened by 0.625ct to 23.5cts below futures. Implied prices increased by 10.73cts to $2.164/gal.

The cost of space on Colonial Pipeline's Line 1 - the main gasoline line -- lowered 0.575ct from Friday to a 2.15ct discount to pipeline tariffs.

On the distillate side of the barrel, spot prices were soaring by more than 36cts during the opening hours of the session, driving cash values to some of their highest marks in more than two years.

Tuesday is the final opportunity to schedule Cycle 14 ULSD, and supplies were talked right around 12.5cts beneath the NYMEX April ULSD futures contract, widening the spot discount by 0.63ct compared to the previous day's average differential. Implied prices surged by 36.46cts, at $2.8418/gal, on track to finish at the strongest level since February 2024.

Jet fuel for Cycle 15 delivery was discussed around a 21ct NYMEX discount, 0.75ct softer than Friday's average. Implied prices catapulted by 36.33cts, at $2.7568/gal, which would be the highest in more than two years.

Cycle 14 ultra-low-sulfur heating oil was pegged at minus 33.95cts versus the screen, deepening spot discounts by 0.63ct from Friday's average differential. Implied prices rallied by 36.46cts, at $2.6273/gal.

Prompt Cycle 14 high-sulfur diesel implied prices climbed to $2.5998/gal, a sharp increase of 36.46cts. Basis levels were gauged at a 36.75ct discount to futures, 0.63ct lower than Friday's average.

Line space on Colonial Pipeline's Line 2 - the main distillate line - remained at a 3.25ct premium to pipeline tariffs, steady with Friday's finish.

This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

-Reporting by Reagan Pritchard, rcoleman@opisnet.com, and Andrew Atwal, aatwal@opisnet.com; Editing by Cory Wilchek, cwilchek@opisnet.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 02, 2026 10:18 ET (15:18 GMT)

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