蔚来、理想、特斯拉共同预警，汽车行业缺芯潮又要来了

AutoReport

昨天

本文来自微信公众号：AutoReport 汽车产经，编辑：甘猛，作者：于雷，原文标题：《蔚来、理想、特斯拉共同预警汽车行业缺芯潮又要来了！》蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌在1月做出判断，内存涨价已成为今年最大的成本压力，这是关乎全行业的大事。尽管他表示，目前内存涨价的成本压力还没有传导到终端售价，也在蔚来的承受范围内。但这种稳定比较脆弱，因为就目前的局势来看，存储芯片的紧缺预计会持续相当长的...

网页链接

免责声明：投资有风险，本文并非投资建议，以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请，作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考，不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证，投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。

热议股票

{"basename":"/hans","ssrTDKData":{"titleTemplate":"%s - 老虎证券","title":"老虎证券全球投资理财平台| 一站式投资美股新股港股A股","description":"老虎证券助您一站式投资美股，新股，港股，A股等全球金融理财产品。新加坡华人最信赖的在线投资平台，现在加入即享低费用，24/5 无时差炒美股投资理财！","keywords":"老虎证券,老虎证券开户,老虎券商,老虎证券官网,老虎证券app,tigertrade老虎证券,股票,炒股,新加坡股票交易平台,投资,投资理财","social":{"ogDescription":"老虎证券助您一站式投资美股，新股，港股，A股等全球金融理财产品。新加坡华人最信赖的在线投资平台，现在加入即享低费用，24/5 无时差炒美股投资理财！","ogImage":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.be62fbe1.png","ogUrl":"https://www.itiger.com/hans/news/2616646539"},"companyName":"老虎证券"},"pageData":{"isMobile":false,"isTiger":false,"isTTM":true,"region":"SGP","license":"TBSG","edition":"fundamental"},"isCrawlerRequest":true,"__swrFallback__":{"@#url:\"https://stock-news.skytigris.cn/v3/news\",params:#id:\"2616646539\",edition:\"fundamental\",auth_exemption:1,,,undefined,":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2616646539?lang=zh_CN&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-03-04 18:27","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2616646539","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"蔚来、理想、特斯拉共同预警，汽车行业缺芯潮又要来了","media":"AutoReport","content":"<div>\n<p>本文来自微信公众号：AutoReport 汽车产经，编辑：甘猛，作者：于雷，原文标题：《蔚来、理想、特斯拉共同预警 汽车行业缺芯潮又要来了！》蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌在1月做出判断，内存涨价已成为今年最大的成本压力，这是关乎全行业的大事。尽管他表示，目前内存涨价的成本压力还没有传导到终端售价，也在蔚来的承受范围内。但这种稳定比较脆弱，因为就目前的局势来看，存储芯片的紧缺预计会持续相当长的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304182825a6a1c670&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来、理想、特斯拉共同预警，汽车行业缺芯潮又要来了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来、理想、特斯拉共同预警，汽车行业缺芯潮又要来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-04 18:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304182825a6a1c670&s=b><strong>AutoReport</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文来自微信公众号：AutoReport 汽车产经，编辑：甘猛，作者：于雷，原文标题：《蔚来、理想、特斯拉共同预警 汽车行业缺芯潮又要来了！》蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌在1月做出判断，内存涨价已成为今年最大的成本压力，这是关乎全行业的大事。尽管他表示，目前内存涨价的成本压力还没有传导到终端售价，也在蔚来的承受范围内。但这种稳定比较脆弱，因为就目前的局势来看，存储芯片的紧缺预计会持续相当长的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304182825a6a1c670&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2087621335.USD","symbol_name":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304182825a6a1c670&s=b","article_id":"2616646539","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304182825a6a1c670&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2616646539","pubTimestamp":1772620020,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"本文来自微信公众号：AutoReport 汽车产经，编辑：甘猛，作者：于雷，原文标题：《蔚来、理想、特斯拉共同预警 汽车行业缺芯潮又要来了！》蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌在1月做出判断，内存涨价已成为今年最大的成本压力，这是关乎全行业的大事。理想汽车供应链副总裁孟庆鹏预测，2026年汽车行业存储芯片的供应满足率可能不足50%。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","NIO":"蔚来","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","BK4509":"腾讯概念","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","NIO.SI":"蔚来","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","TESL":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","TEST":"YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF","07766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","BK4604":"机器人概念","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","TLA":"GraniteShares Autocallable TSLA ETF","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU2420271590.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","NIOG":"2倍做多NIO ETF-Leverage Shares","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4543":"AI","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","TSL":"1.25倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LI":"理想汽车","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","TSLG":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","TSLI":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-ProShares","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","TSLO":"2倍上限加速TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","TSLP":"TSLA收益溢价策略ETF-Kurv","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","09866":"蔚来-SW","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","02015":"理想汽车-W","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC"},"translate_title":"Nio, Ideal, and Tesla jointly warn that the wave of core shortage in the auto industry is coming again","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TESL":0.6,"TSII":0.6,"TSLT":0.6,"09866":1.95,"NIO.SI":1.95,"TSL":0.6,"TSLG":0.6,"02015":1.92,"TLA":0.6,"TSYY":0.6,"NIOG":0.6,"LI":1.92,"TSLW":0.6,"TSLR":0.6,"TSLY":0.6,"TEST":0.6,"TSDD":0.6,"TSLO":0.6,"TSLZ":0.6,"TSLS":0.6,"EVS.SI":0.6,"NIO":1.95,"TSLQ":0.6,"07766":0.6,"TSLI":0.6,"TSLP":0.6,"CRSH":0.6,"TSLA":1.94},"content_text":"本文来自微信公众号：AutoReport 汽车产经，编辑：甘猛，作者：于雷，原文标题：《蔚来、理想、特斯拉共同预警 汽车行业缺芯潮又要来了！》蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌在1月做出判断，内存涨价已成为今年最大的成本压力，这是关乎全行业的大事。尽管他表示，目前内存涨价的成本压力还没有传导到终端售价，也在蔚来的承受范围内。但这种稳定比较脆弱，因为就目前的局势来看，存储芯片的紧缺预计会持续相当长的一段时间。理想汽车供应链副总裁孟庆鹏预测，2026年汽车行业存储芯片的供应满足率可能不足50%。马斯克也在今年1月底表示，即使考虑所有主流存储芯片供应商，也难以满足特斯拉的需求。供应紧缺加剧，汽车智能化又在拉高单车内存需求，使得车企也不得不另寻他路解决芯片短缺问题。比如，过去车企采购的是集成好的智能座舱、智能驾驶域控制器，内存作为模块组件嵌入其中。车企不接触内存制造商，仅验收系统功能。但在芯片荒下，有车企开始跳过Tier1，与内存制造商签署长期供应合同。据报道，近期大众和三星、SK海力士签订了直供协议，现代和三星签订了供货协议，理想、极氪与美光签订了选型认证和芯片直供协议。特斯拉还要更加激进，在2025Q4电话会上，马斯克宣布今年将投资200亿美元新建6座工厂，其中一座就是Terafab晶圆厂。“为了消除未来三四年可能出现的供应瓶颈，我们必须建设一座Terafab晶圆厂。这是集逻辑芯片、内存和封装于一体的大型晶圆厂，且将设在美国本土。这对于我们应对地缘政治风险也至关重要。”马斯克表示。NO.1[缺芯的不只有车企]芯片荒六年前就已经出现过一次，但这次的情况和当初还有点不太一样。2020年初，受疫情影响，车企普遍不看好当年的销售情况，有些主动削减或终止了芯片的采购订单。芯片制造商在这期间，顺势就将空余产能分配给手机、电脑等领域的消费电子芯片，应对居家上课办公带来的需求量上涨。然而，下半年汽车市场意外快速反弹时，留给车规级芯片的产能已经无法支撑市场需求。其余产线又因为切换周期长、消费电子芯片利润更高等原因，没有及时调整。结果就是，大众、福特、丰田等在2020年上半年削减过芯片订单的车企，普遍都因为缺芯被迫暂时关停了部分产能。可以说上次缺芯更多是因为车企对于市场需求的误判造成的，而这次则主要是由于AI大模型爆发式发展带来了海量芯片需求，挤压了汽车、手机等传统行业的存储芯片供应。春节期间，豆包、元宝、千问、文心...几家国产大模型应用豪掷80亿元红包，打响了AI入口争夺战。据不完全统计，豆包在除夕当天互动19亿次、元宝月活跃用户达1.14亿、千问活动首日DAU增长727.7%，有超过400万60岁以上用户首次使用AI点单‌。随着一轮轮互动的扩散，AI也刷屏成为全民热搜。但这场狂欢的另一面是海量的数据和算力消耗，大模型参数从百亿跃升到万亿，训练和推理都需要海量数据并行处理，各家公司不得不提前数月扩建算力集群。扩建过程中，存储芯片中的DRAM（运行内存）又成了缺口最严重的地方。因为GPU需要极高带宽来喂饱数据，一旦带宽跟不上计算速度，就会造成算力空转，训练与推理延迟大幅飙升。此外，AI数据中心服务器还需要更大的内存容量。大语言模型一次长对话就可能占用几十GB内存，训练时还需存储激活值、梯度与优化器状态，内存需求往往是模型参数的几倍到十几倍。“存储行业已全面进入卖方市场，我们的DRAM和NAND闪存库存已降至极低水平，大约仅够4周使用，今年无法完全满足任何客户的需求。”全球存储芯片三巨头之一SK海力士，在前不久的高盛电话会上表态。谷歌、微软、Meta、OpenAI等公司为了抢到产能，总部负责采购的高管都长期租住在韩国，只为争抢所剩无几的DRAM产能。在竞争方式上，融资能力强、现金储备雄厚的AI公司往往也更有优势，他们可以给出更高的报价、更长的长期合同，甚至提前预付锁定2026-2027年供应。这种背景下，不说利润单薄的车企，就连消费电子行业也自然难以与之竞争。“三星DS部门（半导体部门）原本想将苹果iPhone使用的LPDDR5X内存价格提高约60%，然而谈判开始时，先试探性的提出涨价100%，苹果立即接受了。”韩国媒体Dealsite爆料称。更要命的是，芯片制造商不但是把现有产能了优先分配给AI公司，还把很多旧产线，改造成AI数据中心所需的HBM（高带宽内存）或先进DDR5（高速通用内存）产线，导致当前主流的车规级DDR4芯片产能进一步减少。但面对这种突然的短缺，车企短时间很难做出灵活的转变。因为，芯片集成后需要进行长达1-2年的系统级安全认证，即使可以替换，也不能立刻量产，结果可能就是只能在市场上疯狂扫货。高盛集团亚洲团队的调查数据指出，DDR4今年1月的现货价上涨172%，而DDR5仅76%。这表明，很多买家正在试图抢购任何能够买到的成熟制成芯片。NO.2[芯片荒预计2028年缓解]AI数据中心的挤压下，2026年，对于车企来说注定是非常艰难的一年。三大存储芯片供应商中，SK海力士、美光都已明确表示今年的HBM芯片产能已经全部售罄，三星HBM4预定量也超过了计划产能。HBM每GB容量消耗的晶圆是DDR5的3倍，每投入1片晶圆生产HBM，就相当于少产出3倍同等容量的DDR5。美光首席商务官Sumit Sadana承认：“随着HBM供应量的增加，由于这种三比一的比例关系，留给非HBM市场的内存供应量就会减少。”SK海力士正在龙仁半导体集群建设一期晶圆厂，该项目规模相当于其清州M15X晶圆厂的6倍产能紧张，三大供应商规划中的新产线至少还要再等近一年才能投产，这也成为了新玩家成长的契机。作为国内最大的DRAM厂商，长鑫存储的LPDDR5芯片已经完成了车规级认证，并适配特斯拉、比亚迪等车规级客户。其招股书显示，LPDDR5芯片（包括消费级）去年底在全球市场达到约9%份额。由于需求旺盛，长鑫存储在合肥、北京的两处工厂已处于满负荷运转状态，目前正在上海扩建新厂。该工厂将生产面向服务器、计算机、汽车电子及其他电子产品的DRAM，设备安装计划于2026年下半年启动，2027年正式投产。可以从规划看到，尽管AI计算中心的内存芯片盈利更高，但新厂依旧涵盖了车规级芯片的生产。这是因为车规级芯片作为现金牛业务，不但出货量稳定，采购周期还更长，只要锁定供应链，一般就会有10-15年的长期供应承诺。事实上，即使产能明显向AI计算中心倾斜的三星、SK海力士和美光，也没有想与车企做切割。毕竟，他们亲身经历过疫情后消费电子芯片需求激增，2022年迅速饱和后，出货量大幅下降，价格应声跳水的反噬。所以在这一轮需要上涨中，他们也在防范这类风险。一方面，通过与AI公司签署长期合约锁定产能，避免重蹈2022覆辙，另一方面也在维系汽车客户。比如，SK海力士原计划在今年上半年停止DDR4出货，但最后保留了部分产能，以支持汽车和工业客户；美光也明确DDR4会在今年一季度后停产，但会继续为长期汽车客户提供少量供应。长远来看，汽车市场还有着更大的潜力。随着自动驾驶和智能座舱的发展，车载数据量正在呈指数级增长。早期ACC/LCC功能，通常仅需1-2GB的运行内存。然而到了智能驾驶阶段，前些年流行的双Orin-X方案就已经达到32GB，需求发生了质的飞跃。除了容量的激增，智能驾驶对内存带宽和响应速度也有着更高要求。为了确保在高速行驶中系统不卡顿、无延迟，智能驾驶采用的都是最新的LPDDR5/5X芯片。这种容量和规格的双重升级，也意味着更大的市场潜力。智能座舱上，近两年流行的本地语音大模型交互、本地运行3A游戏，也需要至少8-12GB的运行内存。为此，蔚来、小鹏甚至都直接采用智驾芯片驱动座舱系统。目前，城市NOA、本地座舱大模型的普及率还相对有限，存储芯片厂商也看好未来的需求，不愿意彻底中断汽车业务。至于芯片荒会持续到什么时间，随着三大内存厂商扩建产能在2027-2028年的集中释放，问题或许就会得到缓解。在社交平台X上，有一个叫BullsLab的用户疑似泄露了一份SK海力士的内部文件，上面显示DRAM缺货将持续至2028年，同样契合这一时间节点。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}