微软CEO纳德拉：Office早已转型！模型架构距离关键创新或只差一步!只要有真实落地，AI就谈不上说是泡沫！看好量子计算与AI融合

51CTO技术栈

03/02

编辑 | 云昭2月底，微软很忙。微软 CEOSatya Nadella，亲自奔赴德国坐镇近期正在举办的大型AI巡演活动“Microsoft AI Tour 2026”。而就在这期间，Nadella 接受了德国知名播客OMR主持人Philipp Westermeyer的邀请，进行了一场信息密度极高的对话。虽然不到20分钟，但可以说AI圈最重要、最关注的问题都进行了关键的梳理。众所周知，微软作为 ...

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12:58","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2616780066","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"微软CEO纳德拉：Office早已转型！模型架构距离关键创新或只差一步!只要有真实落地，AI就谈不上说是泡沫！看好量子计算与AI融合","media":"51CTO技术栈","content":"<div>\n<p>编辑 | 云昭2月底，微软很忙。微软 CEOSatya Nadella，亲自奔赴德国坐镇近期正在举办的大型AI巡演活动“Microsoft AI Tour 2026”。而就在这期间，Nadella 接受了德国知名播客OMR主持人Philipp Westermeyer的邀请，进行了一场信息密度极高的对话。虽然不到20分钟，但可以说AI圈最重要、最关注的问题都进行了关键的梳理。众所周知，微软作为 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260302140051a7302e98&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>微软CEO纳德拉：Office早已转型！模型架构距离关键创新或只差一步!只要有真实落地，AI就谈不上说是泡沫！看好量子计算与AI融合</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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Nadella，亲自奔赴德国坐镇近期正在举办的大型AI巡演活动“Microsoft AI Tour 2026”。而就在这期间，Nadella 接受了德国知名播客OMR主持人Philipp Westermeyer的邀请，进行了一场信息密度极高的对话。虽然不到20分钟，但可以说AI圈最重要、最关注的问题都进行了关键的梳理。众所周知，微软作为 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260302140051a7302e98&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SG9999014914.USD","symbol_name":"UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH (USDHDG) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260302140051a7302e98&s=b","article_id":"2616780066","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260302140051a7302e98&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2616780066","pubTimestamp":1772427502,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"微软 CEOSatya Nadella，亲自奔赴德国坐镇近期正在举办的大型AI巡演活动“Microsoft AI Tour 2026”。他表示，Office 已经转型了！Nadella 给出了一个非常令人信服的“检验标准”：只要有真实的落地扩散，就谈不上泡沫！最终体现在GDP增长上，这才是检验标准。另外一个值得关注的信号是，Nadella 非常看好的技术突破是“量子计算和AI的融合”。Nadella对此表示这是一个现实问题，应该把所有选项摆在桌面上。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"SG9999014914.USD":"UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH (USDHDG) INC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0265550946.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A5\" (USD) INC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","IE00B3SWFQ91.USD":"PIMCO 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The model architecture may be only one step away from key innovations! As long as there is a real landing, AI cannot be said to be a bubble! Optimistic about the integration of quantum computing and AI","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFL":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFT":1.98,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFD":0.6},"content_text":"编辑 | 云昭2月底，微软很忙。微软 CEOSatya Nadella，亲自奔赴德国坐镇近期正在举办的大型AI巡演活动“Microsoft AI Tour 2026”。而就在这期间，Nadella 接受了德国知名播客OMR主持人Philipp Westermeyer的邀请，进行了一场信息密度极高的对话。虽然不到20分钟，但可以说AI圈最重要、最关注的问题都进行了关键的梳理。众所周知，微软作为 OpenAI 初始投资者，同时又是PC时代、云时代的科技巨头，业界对于其接下来5年的趋势判断有着极强的关注度。主持人问了不少尖锐的问题。微软接下来五年，是不是继续依赖 Windows 和 Office 的收入？Nadella 直接戳破了问题陷阱： Office 如今在微软已经不是“传统业务”，而已经转型成了面向未来的基础设施。他表示，Office 已经转型了！“Office本身经历了商业模式和价值形态的转型。”进入“智能体时代”，企业为智能体配置的第一项资源往往就是 Office！在智能体时代，每一个 Agent 或数字分身，都需要身份、协作空间、邮件、会议、文档访问权限。也就是说，每一个智能体如果要触及 Office 场景，就都需要一个“Office实例”。简单理解就是，过去是“每个员工一个Office账号”，未来可能是“每个员工+多个数字分身”都需要 Office。所以，他判断，Office绝不是夕阳产品，恰恰相反，这是一个市场扩大的好机会。再比如，主持人再次提及了“AI 泡沫”的问题。Nadella 给出了一个非常令人信服的“检验标准”：只要有真实的落地扩散，就谈不上泡沫！从长远看，AI会让经济更加扩展。它首先是巨大的实体投资，比如西门子会成为数据中心设备的重要供应商。能源需求也会增加，供给侧会扩大。需求侧随着应用普及，会带来医疗改善、公共部门效率提升。最终体现在GDP增长上，这才是检验标准。此外，对于 AI 带来的取代人类岗位的问题，Nadella 表示自己不会否认这一点，不管是编程领域还是其他知识工作，这一点在所难免。但他认为，并不会给社会带来“人人失业”的局面，“我们并非完全失控。作为社会，我们可以决定技术如何扩散、工资如何变化、哪些专业能力被奖励。我们不该放弃这种主动权。”而主动权的重点则在于，大家应该重新学习新技能、新工具，寻求主动转型。另外一个值得关注的信号是，Nadella 非常看好的技术突破是“量子计算和AI的融合”。他透露，量子计算在模拟数据方面具备独特优势。因而，量子计算可以帮助生成更高质量的训练数据，用于训练AI模型，使其在计算机内对现实世界的模拟更加精确，从而具备更强的预测能力。另外，他还表示模型架构方面，包括 Transformer、 RL 在内，他认为距离关键突破，或许只有一步之遥。对于德国的合作方向上，Nadella 给出了“在数字数据的排放转化为智能层”的方案，尤其提到了西门子的合作案例，在数字孪生系统中嵌入了智能层。当然还有很多猛料，比如，他还提到 2019 年微软投资 OpenAI 10 亿美元时的顾虑：当时比尔盖茨并不是完全支持那次投资，因为风险是在很高：有些事情成功后会被庆祝，失败时没人记得。再比如提及当年微软全面的“云转型”，他表示那是自己作为CEO最艰难的时刻。外界回头看都会觉得 Nadella 做了一次非常有魄力的改革：他果断没有去“守住旧的利润模型”，而是“押注市场扩张曲线”。但Nadella 回顾那段经历，他却认为“这类决定最为沉重。”因为最艰难的决定通常涉及人员调整，影响员工命运。回过头来，Nadella 还毫不避讳地提到了此次德国之行的一个感受：德国、欧洲对于跨国公司的“怀疑情绪”变得更多了。“一些欧洲政府在考虑是否只允许使用欧洲本土工具，甚至有大型连锁超市在开发自己的云。”Nadella对此表示这是一个现实问题，应该把所有选项摆在桌面上。“世界依然会保持连接，各个地区的创新彼此流动，这才是真正的进步标志。”以下是小编为大家梳理的微软CEO最新的、Agent时代的趋势判断与思考。纳德拉谈德国此行感受：怀疑情绪变多了我们应该把所有选项摆在桌面上主持人：Satya，你这次来德国是做什么？Satya Nadella：我们正在进行AI巡回活动，今天在慕尼黑，我很高兴来到这里。主持人：最近来德国、在这里回答问题，会不会更困难？Satya Nadella：不会，我很喜欢来这里。气氛确实有些变化，怀疑情绪更多了。一些欧洲政府在考虑是否只允许使用欧洲本土工具，甚至有大型连锁超市在开发自己的云。但竞争本来就有现实基础，一直都存在，本地竞争、跨国竞争，我们都欢迎。德国和欧洲值得拥有来自本地区以及全球其他地区的卓越创新。每次我在美国的珠宝店或牙医诊所，我都会看到德国“中端制造”的卓越品质。世界依然会保持连接，各个地区的创新彼此流动，这才是真正的进步标志。主持人：你能理解一些德国或欧洲企业的担忧吗？Satya Nadella：任何国家都应该思考自己的创新议程、竞争力和主权问题，这正是当下的主题。我今天的演讲也提到，要把所有选项都摆在桌面上。我们是一家美国公司，也是一家跨国公司，但我们在欧洲、在德国投入了大量资本，承担风险，让德国企业可以利用这些资源创造更多价值。我们带来的不只是软件，也有本地的投资与创新。我们提供完整的主权选项：自主管理密钥、数据加密、机密计算、私有云选择，还有本地合作伙伴。管理风险就像管理投资组合，需要多元化。德国既要拥有主权，也要持续输出面向全球的产品，我们可以成为合作伙伴。微软能够持续向前的原因核心是使命感主持人：简单聊聊你的职业生涯。你2014年出任CEO时，公司市值只有现在的十分之一，营收增长了五六倍，数字很惊人。你怎么看？Satya Nadella：真正重要的永远是接下来会发生什么。关键问题是，公司成立50年后的2026年，我们为什么还能持续前进？对我来说，核心是使命感，让我们持续保持相关性，还有一种能建立能力的文化。AI就是例子。早在2018、2019年，我们就判断AI会进入一个全新阶段，在它成为共识之前就做出决策。2019年微软首次投资OpenAI当时盖茨并不完全支持主持人：你们2019年第一次投资OpenAI，当时比尔·盖茨并不完全支持？Satya Nadella：这些我们都公开谈过。2019年投入10亿美元，当时很多人觉得我们在烧钱。有些事情成功后会被庆祝，失败时没人记得。我们真正着迷的是自然语言。从微软研究院早期开始，我们就追问能否在自然语言上取得突破。后来OpenAI团队从强化学习转向自然语言和规模法则，我们意识到这点的重要性，于是加大投入，之后的故事大家都知道了。主持人：传闻你在Sun Valley会议上第一次见到Sam Altman。是什么让你决定投资？Satya Nadella：我认识Sam很久了，早在他第一次创业时就认识，也了解其他创始人。那篇关于规模法则的重要论文，当时是Dario在OpenAI写的。团队非常出色，对规模化充满信念。我们认为可以成为强有力的合作伙伴，于是全力投入，对双方都带来了积极结果。备注：Sun Valley会议，是指Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference，是一年一度在美国爱达荷州 Sun Valley 举办的私密峰会，由投行 Allen & Company 主办，被称为“亿万富豪夏令营”。全球科技、媒体与投资界顶级人物都会出席，很多重大合作与并购都在这里萌芽。“AI是不是泡沫”的检验标准主持人：你会担心AI泡沫吗？Satya Nadella：真正重要的是技术是否在现实世界产生影响。我在慕尼黑听一家本地创业公司介绍他们打造全球领先的客户体验平台，他们在赢得市场份额。慕尼黑消防部门也在用AI提升紧急调度效率。只要有真实的落地扩散，就谈不上泡沫。主持人：但现在OpenAI的市值超过SAP、Deutsche Telekom和Siemens三家之和，这合理吗？Satya Nadella：从长远看，AI会让经济更加扩展。它首先是巨大的实体投资，比如西门子会成为数据中心设备的重要供应商。能源需求也会增加，供给侧会扩大。需求侧随着应用普及，会带来医疗改善、公共部门效率提升，最终体现在GDP增长上，这才是检验标准。主持人：估值令人震惊。Satya Nadella：资本市场关注未来盈利能力。短期像投票机，长期像称重机。我不会评论具体股价。更重要的是，通用技术会提升整体生产力，让所有行业受益。模型架构会有新的突破距离关键创新，也许只差一步主持人：AI是否会有新的突破，超越Transformer？Satya Nadella：创新从未停止。先是预训练规模，然后是后训练，再到推理、强化学习等方向。即便在被称为Transformer及其架构的体系内部，也在持续发生创新。我常说，我们距离一次关键创新也许只差一步，一旦出现新的模型架构，效率和性能都可能实现跨越式提升。所以必须保持足够开放的心态。岗位替代肯定发生，重要的是应对：主动转型主持人：放眼未来三到五年，第一个问题是，五年后会不会有大量人口失业？Satya Nadella：这是我们面临的核心议题之一——工作的形态、产出物以及工作流程将如何改变。以软件开发为例，毕竟这场变革从这里开始。我对Transformer模型及其规模化能力的信心，是在看到GitHub Copilot中的代码补全效果后进一步增强的。回顾软件开发历史，我最早从汇编语言学起，后来有了编译器，再到高级语言、解释型语言，工具链和抽象层级不断演进，每一次都在提升生产力。这一次同样是一次巨大跃迁，它一方面降低门槛，让更多人能成为开发者；另一方面也抬高上限，对专业能力提出更高要求。降低门槛是什么意思？就像Microsoft Excel让更多人能成为数据分析者一样，现在更多人可以写代码。但与此同时，你需要掌握更复杂的能力，才能驾驭这些新工具，确保生成的代码不是黑箱。这意味着我们都要重新学习、提升技能。短期内，更重要的是应对转型。我不会否认会出现岗位替代，必须直面这一点。应对替代的最佳方式，是理解新媒介、新工具和新技能要求，主动转型。软件开发领域已经在发生这种变化，开发者的生产率在提高，而IT需求积压依然庞大。不应过分担心“人人都会失业”，我们没有完全失控主持人：我能理解软件行业，但现在讨论的是整个经济体。Satya Nadella：如果在上世纪80年代初，有人告诉我们未来会有三四十亿人每天早上起床后敲键盘，我们可能会问“为什么？”当时我们有专职打字员和幻灯片制作部门，没人会想到会诞生“知识工作”这个概念。人类社会创造了全新的工作类型。我不是盲目乐观，但我们应当对自身能力保持一定信心。政治经济体系、选举制度都在发挥作用，社会不会容忍对整体福祉无益的结果。真正的“调节器”是我们自己，我们会塑造技术带来的结果。如果冲击发生得很快，挑战当然巨大。假如失业率突然飙升，局面会非常严峻。因此我们需要把重点放在技能提升上，让自己站在新的生产率曲线上，获得更多经济机会。主持人：所以你不担心出现大规模失业潮？Satya Nadella：任何可能阻碍社会进步的情景都值得担忧。如果有人描绘一个“人人失业”的反乌托邦未来，我当然会担心。但我们并非完全失控。作为社会，我们可以决定技术如何扩散、工资如何变化、哪些专业能力被奖励。我们不该放弃这种主动权。跟德国有哪些合作？数字数据的“排放”可以转化为“智能层”主持人：五年后，德国还会是微软前三大市场之一吗？Satya Nadella：我希望如此。德国之所以在全球取得成功，靠的是工程能力与创新精神，能够生产世界需要的产品。如今德国强大的工业基础结合数字能力，潜力更大。数字数据的“排放”可以转化为智能层，与设备深度融合。比如我们与Siemens合作推进数字孪生，并在其数字孪生系统中嵌入智能层。主持人：你经常与德国企业领袖交流？Satya Nadella：是的。我会与西门子的领导层交流，也会和Mercedes-Benz的管理层沟通，今天还会见很多人。我始终与德国企业CEO保持联系。Office在转型：面向智能体主持人：未来五年，微软还会高度依赖Office和Windows收入吗？Satya Nadella：当我们谈“依赖Office和Windows”时，其实要问，Office到底是什么？最初人们购买的是客户端软件，后来是服务器，再后来是云服务、数据存储与协作功能。Office本身经历了商业模式和价值形态的转型。进入“智能体时代”，企业为智能体配置的第一项资源往往就是Office，因为智能体需要与人类协作，需要在Microsoft Teams频道中沟通、访问邮箱。假设我有一个数字同事，它拥有我的身份，就需要一个独立的Office实例。如果我们停滞不前，业务当然会消失。但当云计算出现时，我们原本拥有利润丰厚的服务器业务，也担心云会侵蚀利润。结果云确实改变了利润结构，却极大扩展了市场规模。智能体也会带来类似变化。如果你从事Office业务，每个智能体都需要Office，这反而是机会。最艰难的时刻：押注云计算带来的人员调整主持人：你看起来总是乐观积极，但一定也做过艰难决定。最难的一次是什么？Satya Nadella：最艰难的决定通常涉及人员调整，影响员工命运。这类决定最为沉重。就战略层面而言，当我们意识到在手机市场已经严重落后，必须集中资源时，我们选择押注云计算。我们认为云作为跨设备的控制平面更重要，也因此推动Office在所有平台上线。这些都不是轻松决定。但面对结构性变革，必须拥抱未来，而不能否认趋势。纳德拉最期待的突破：量子计算和AI的叠加效应主持人：你一生中还想看到什么技术突破？Satya Nadella：对我而言，一个梦想是我们目前推进的两个方向能够真正融合：量子计算与AI的结合，是我特别期待的方向，关键在于，两者的叠加效应。今天的主题演讲中，我们展示了一个名为GigaTime的模型，它可以对空间蛋白质组学进行模拟。这类检测在免疫治疗中非常关键，用来判断某种免疫疗法是否对特定癌症肿瘤有效。目前这项检测成本高昂，如果我们能够通过模型在“计算机内”完成模拟，那么它将可以部署到更多普通医院，而不只是大型中心医院。再想一想这个模型的训练过程。量子计算机在模拟方面具备独特优势。我们本质上是在学习自然的语言，而自然本身是量子性的。因此，量子计算可以帮助我们生成更高质量的训练数据，用于训练AI模型，使其在计算机内对现实世界的模拟更加精确，从而具备更强的预测能力。参考链接：https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NANwT123E3U——好文推荐——大多数工程师没准备好！斯坦福讲师、硅谷创业公司AI负责人爆料：前1%顶尖工程师都在构建Agent友好型代码库；新人更适合AI创业！Coding赛道大转向！Cursor创始人：核心定位已变！AI软件行业已进入第三个时代！大神卡帕西建议：不要太保守！网友：PR主导的工作流要终结图灵奖得主、强化学习之父：AI模型本身其实很脆弱！现在的AI，只是局部智能！真正的下一阶段是经验时代！人类终将被AI继任！AI要去中心化","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}