By Dustin Volz

The Central Intelligence Agency in recent weeks assessed that the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a result of U.S. military operations could lead to hardliners from the country's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or another faction in the country taking power, according to people familiar with the matter.

The classified analysis considered multiple scenarios and wasn't an intelligence product of high confidence, the people said, adding that it made clear there was a high degree of uncertainty in judging the likelihood of various outcomes. U.S. intelligence assessments are often distributed with confidence thresholds of high, medium or low.

But the report said there were substantial obstacles for dissidents or resistance figures to seize control in Tehran given the level of oppression in the country, which could make it difficult for a genuine anti-regime movement to gain traction, those people said. Reuters earlier reported on the existence of the CIA's findings.

The IRGC is a powerful military group in Iran dedicated to protecting the ayatollah and the existing regime. Israel is confident that Khamenei was killed by its airstrikes, according to people familiar with the operation. The U.S. hasn't confirmed his death. Iranian officials have indicated their leader is still alive.

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February 28, 2026 15:19 ET (20:19 GMT)

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