芯片“首选”英伟达、取代存储，大摩的理由：股价滞涨已久，而“2026年增长见顶”论已破产

华尔街见闻

03/03

英伟达过去两个季度的股价几乎没动，但摩根士丹利的判断是：基本面反而在变强，市场只是被两件事卡住——增长能不能“熬过”2026，以及市场份额会不会被ASIC、AMD慢慢啃掉。大摩把英伟达重新抬回半导体板块的“首选”，维持增持评级与260美元目标价，并把当前估值视作少见的介入窗口。据追风交易台，摩根士丹利北美半导体分析师Joseph Moore在最新报告中表示，英伟达以2027年盈利计仅约18倍...

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09:47","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2616965833","market":"nz","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"芯片“首选”英伟达、取代存储，大摩的理由：股价滞涨已久，而“2026年增长见顶”论已破产","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>英伟达过去两个季度的股价几乎没动，但摩根士丹利的判断是：基本面反而在变强，市场只是被两件事卡住——增长能不能“熬过”2026，以及市场份额会不会被ASIC、AMD慢慢啃掉。大摩把英伟达重新抬回半导体板块的“首选”，维持增持评级与260美元目标价，并把当前估值视作少见的介入窗口。\n据追风交易台，摩根士丹利北美半导体分析师Joseph Moore在最新报告中表示，英伟达以2027年盈利计仅约18倍...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766585\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>芯片“首选”英伟达、取代存储，大摩的理由：股价滞涨已久，而“2026年增长见顶”论已破产</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766585\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0957808578.USD","symbol_name":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"ZU\" (USD) 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bankrupt","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDQ":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDA":1.97,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVII":0.6},"content_text":"英伟达过去两个季度的股价几乎没动，但摩根士丹利的判断是：基本面反而在变强，市场只是被两件事卡住——增长能不能“熬过”2026，以及市场份额会不会被ASIC、AMD慢慢啃掉。大摩把英伟达重新抬回半导体板块的“首选”，维持增持评级与260美元目标价，并把当前估值视作少见的介入窗口。\n据追风交易台，摩根士丹利北美半导体分析师Joseph Moore在最新报告中表示，英伟达以2027年盈利计仅约18倍市盈率，是一个出人意料的好切入点。他的逻辑不是押注下个季度再超预期，而是押注投资人对“增长耐久度”的怀疑，会在未来几个月开始松动。\n支撑这套判断的证据，更多来自供应链与客户行为：报告提到，超大规模云厂商正在对上游做更长周期的锁量，甚至出现“3年订单、部分全额预付”的现象。这类动作很难与“明年就打算急刹车”兼容。不过报告也承认，下游现金流的压力是真问题：部分云基础设施业务处在负现金流状态，若按财务数字推演，明年资本开支确实可能降速。\n至于市场份额，摩根士丹利并不否认2026年英伟达可能小幅回落：它给出的结构是英伟达约85%的收入份额，ASIC略高于10%，AMD略低于5%；在英伟达规模已接近“每季度800亿美元”的约束下，同行增速略快、份额回吐1—2个百分点并不意外。\n\n两季度横盘的本质：市场在押注“增长不耐久”，而不是否定当下景气\n摩根士丹利把英伟达近期的“涨不动”归因于预期结构：市场已经默认眼下很强，真正的分歧在2027。\n它提到一个反常对比——当初把板块首选从英伟达换到SanDisk、再换到美光之后，内存股累计涨幅达到300%—900%，而英伟达股价“原地踏步”；与此同时，英伟达“当前季度”的盈利预期在6个月里上调了38%。这意味着，压着股价的不是数据，而是对周期寿命的怀疑。\n报告也把这种情绪波动放进历史模式：过去三年里，每年年初市场都会对“下一年”不放心，直到可见度补上，股价才出现阶段性跑赢。它押注2026年会重复这一过程。\n供应链给出的信号偏“硬”：三年锁单、甚至全额预付\n摩根士丹利认为，持续性更难证明，但它看到的上游行为越来越极端。报告写到，超大规模客户对内存供应商下3年订单，在部分情况下甚至全额预付；极端案例是“本季度就收到了2028年收入的100%”，而对应的量级还是当前水平的数倍。\n它把这类预付款视作“耐久度线索”：如果客户真要在明年放缓，很难解释为什么要把更远期的供给提前用现金锁死。报告强调，这只是诸多迹象之一——从供应链反馈看，多个环节都在为持续增长做准备。\n下游的反证来自现金流：部分云基础设施业务仍在“烧钱”\n摩根士丹利并没有把“现金流问题”轻轻带过。报告提到，一些云基础设施业务处于负现金流状态：这当然可以持续（资产负债表强、也有融资空间），但如果只看财务数字，明年开支确实“看起来会降速”。\n它给出的解释框架更接近“时间差”：英伟达管理层在电话会上的回应是，云厂商会在这些投资上赚到比市场模型里更多的钱；\n报告也补充，云GPU业务利润很高，且市场参与者在讨论“算力供需缺口每天以个位数扩大”。换句话说，短期现金流可能难看，但不等于投资回报不存在。\n份额可能小幅回吐，但客户的注意力已经转向Rubin\n在竞争格局上，摩根士丹利给出了明确拆分：英伟达收入份额约85%，ASIC略高于10%，AMD略低于5%。它预计2026年同行增速略快，英伟达份额可能下滑1—2个百分点，原因很“物理”：规模越大、供应受限越强，越难维持同样增速。\n但报告认为，客户真正盯着的是Rubin（预计下半年出货），而在此之前竞争仍主要体现为Blackwell对阵各类替代方案。它也承认护城河“有一点被侵蚀”，因为头部模型开发者更倾向架构中立，同时使用英伟达、AMD、Google云TPU以及自研ASIC；\n不过按其调研，即便在第三方强调“更低总体拥有成本”的领域，客户偏好仍常常倒向英伟达。报告甚至提到，最大的两家ASIC用户、以及最大的两家潜在AMD用户，在2026年仍可能让其与英伟达的业务增长达到80%+。\n此外，对更激进的多头叙事（前沿模型开发者指向2029年需要“几百GW算力”，而今年约30GW），摩根士丹利态度克制：它不买这个数字，但也明确表示，看不到2026年“周期结束”的迹象。\n它的关键约束条件是产能：半导体产能不可能在短时间内把供给推到那种规模。更重要的是，来自全球供应链的反馈并非“订单变弱”，而是“用现金提前锁定穿越2028的增长”。\n对于即将到来的GTC大会，摩根士丹利预期，它未必能让持怀疑态度的投资者彻底相信资本开支的可持续性，但大概率能把市场份额争论先讲清楚。这次展示会类似2024年——给出更完整的四年路线图，并强调竞争不止是芯片本身，还包括机柜与生态系统建设；同时，它预计Groq 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