By Teresa Rivas

It looks like Santa did a lot of shopping at Burlington.

Burlington Stores reported upbeat fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday. The off-price retailer earned $4.99 a share on revenue that rose more than 11% from the year-ago period to $3.64 billion. Top- and bottom-line results were both ahead of analysts' expectations for $4.76 a share and $3.59 billion, respectively. Comparable sales jumped 4% in the quarter.

Wall Street is feeling hopeful about the stock.

For the full year, Burlington said it will earn between $10.95 to $11.45 a share, with a midpoint above the $11.15 consensus estimate. It sees same-store sales up between 1% and 3%, bracketing the 2% growth it logged in the just-completed fiscal year.

At a recent $306, the shares have gained more than 14% since Barron's recommended them in late 2025, while the S&P 500 is roughly breakeven over the same period. Yet the stock should keep climbing, given the upbeat outlook for the year ahead.

Burlington has historically forecast same-store sales of 0% to 2% growth, and while an increase to a 1% to 3% pace might not seem like a big deal in "off-price, subtle shifts in language matter," notes William Blair analyst Dylan Carden. "What will be most crucial to the stock...is more the consistency of the comps, as opposed to its absolute level, provided it can maintain a low- to mid-single-digit pace."

Burlington's off-price peers TJX Cos. and Ross Stores have been more consistent on this metric, but their stocks are also pricier. Burlington changes hands for 23 times next fiscal year's expected earnings of $13.32 a share. Consensus, meanwhile, calls for per-share earnings to jump more than 17% this year and next, easily above estimates for its two closest rivals.

There's also hope that this could be the year that Burlington does deliver more predictable same-store sales growth.

Management called out the "tremendous opportunity" in the second half of the year as Burlington laps the late 2025 tariff-related disruptions in merchandise assortments.

More immediately, "the first quarter is off to a strong start -- tax refunds are favorable, the buying environment is 'excellent,' and the consumer remains resilient," writes Bernstein analyst Aneesha Sherman, who raised her price target by $15 to $365 after the results. "The store strategy continues to create a multi-year comp, margin, and productivity tailwind."

That, she says, should support earnings-per-share growth of 20% or more through fiscal 2028.

Some are worried about the margin picture, as Burlington is still working through tariff costs and investments in a new distribution channel. However, it's worth noting the retailer's full-year operating margin expanded some 80 basis points in fiscal 2025, on top of a 100-basis-point gain in fiscal 2024 "underscoring the durability of recent margin gains," writes

Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe, who raised his target after the results to $370, says that underscores "the durability of recent margin gains."

"Management reiterated confidence that margin improvements are structural and sustainable, with incremental sales expected to drive further leverage," he added.

Burlington is also expanding its store base rapidly and leaning "into an elevated footprint in order to attract high value customers at a time when the consumer is seeking value broadly speaking," as Telsey Advisory Group's Dana Telsey puts it.

That means the shares still look worth snapping up.

Write to Teresa Rivas at teresa.rivas@barrons.com

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March 06, 2026 16:17 ET (21:17 GMT)

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