马斯克宣称特斯拉 “将造出 AGI”，但多年来 AI 预言屡屡落空！

汽车产业前线观察

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埃隆·马斯克今日宣布，特斯拉将成为“造出通用人工智能（AGI）的企业之一”，并且“很可能率先打造出人形/原子操控形态的AGI”。这是这位特斯拉CEO一连串宏大AI预言中的最新一条。问题在于，多年来马斯克一直在就AI突破发表类似言论，而每一次都落空了。如今，特斯拉销量连续第二年下滑、利润暴跌，这看起来更像是他又一次试图把特斯拉绑上AI炒作热潮。屡测屡错的预言套路马斯克对AI时间表的预测，遵循着一套...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260305090016a6a414e7&s=b><strong>汽车产业前线观察</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>埃隆·马斯克今日宣布，特斯拉将成为“造出通用人工智能（AGI）的企业之一”，并且“很可能率先打造出人形/原子操控形态的AGI”。这是这位特斯拉CEO一连串宏大AI预言中的最新一条。问题在于，多年来马斯克一直在就AI突破发表类似言论，而每一次都落空了。如今，特斯拉销量连续第二年下滑、利润暴跌，这看起来更像是他又一次试图把特斯拉绑上AI炒作热潮。屡测屡错的预言套路马斯克对AI时间表的预测，遵循着一套...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260305090016a6a414e7&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU1778281490.HKD","symbol_name":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) 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将在2025年到来。2025年过去，AGI并未出现，他又将时间点推至2026年。今年早些时候，他宣称“我们已进入奇点时代”，并表示“2026年是奇点之年”。现在，他又改口宣称特斯拉将率先开发出AGI，并且是通过擎天柱（Optimus）机器人项目，以“人形/原子操控形态”实现。这一套路，马斯克在特斯拉自动驾驶承诺上早已用过。他在2016年就宣布，所有特斯拉车型已具备完全自动驾驶所需硬件。2019到2025年，他每年都宣称当年底就能实现完全自动驾驶，但从未兑现。正如我们在年终回顾中记录的那样，马斯克2025年的5大特斯拉预言全部落空。特斯拉在奥斯汀的“无人驾驶出租车”车队至今仍只有约30辆车，大部分时间停运，且车内仍必须配备安全员。即便在硬件上，承诺也站不住脚。2025年11月，马斯克还在吹捧特斯拉第8代AI芯片，而他此前对第3代芯片配套自动驾驶的承诺仍未兑现。2026年1月，他称AI5芯片设计“即将完成”——而早在半年前，他就宣称已经“完工”。特斯拉业务基本面早已是另一幅景象就在马斯克大谈AGI和奇点之时，特斯拉的实际业务正在恶化。2025年特斯拉交付163万辆汽车，较2024年下滑9%，连续第二年交付量下跌。营收约948亿美元，同比下滑约3%，为公司史上首次年度营收下滑。每股收益预计同比大跌33%。2025年第一季度，特斯拉在本就惨淡的预期下再度大幅不及，利润暴跌71%；第二季度利润下滑23%。到2025年底，销量下滑趋势已明确加速。与此同时，比亚迪2025年交付226万辆电动车，超越特斯拉成为全球最大电动车制造商。特斯拉在欧洲市场份额持续萎缩：德国销量暴跌48%，法国暴跌40%；在中国市场，本土竞争对手不断蚕食份额。尽管如此，特斯拉股价仍远高于其他所有车企，市值约1.5万亿美元。这一估值完全建立在一个叙事上：特斯拉不是一家车企，而是一家AI和机器人公司。这正是马斯克不惜一切代价要维持的故事。xAI带来的利益冲突AGI宣言还因马斯克自身行为变得更加复杂。多年来，他向特斯拉投资者兜售的愿景是：特斯拉将成为全球领先的现实世界AI公司。但随后他创立了自己控股的私营AI公司xAI，并开始将AI资源与人才从特斯拉抽走。特斯拉投资者已起诉马斯克违反受托责任，指控他利用特斯拉的资源与声誉搭建xAI的基础设施。据我们报道，xAI已向其投资者承诺，将为特斯拉擎天柱机器人开发AI——这意味着支撑特斯拉高估值的AI，甚至可能不是特斯拉自研的。就在昨天，我们还报道了马斯克的xAI数据中心如何抵消特斯拉的气候成果，一切都以AI的名义。这是一团错综复杂的利益冲突。媒体观点这是埃隆·马斯克在拼命把特斯拉绑上AI泡沫。考虑到过去三年股价在波动中基本横盘，特斯拉股东并未真正从这一泡沫中获益。我们多年来一直在追踪马斯克的AI和自动驾驶承诺，模式清晰无误：大胆放话 → 截止日期失效 → 转头炒作下一个概念。2023年是“特斯拉汽车有思想”，2024年是“2025年AGI到来”，2025年是奇点，现在又变成特斯拉造出“原子操控形态AGI”——不管那到底是什么意思。随着特斯拉销量下滑、史上首次营收下跌、利润崩盘，马斯克总在寻找下一个让投资者聚焦的光鲜概念。无人驾驶出租车没有落地，擎天柱连稳定爆爆米花都做不到，总体规划第四部分里模糊的AI承诺也没有变成产品。于是现在轮到了AGI。一个令人难堪的事实是：AI研究界对AGI短期内能否实现、甚至是否会实现，根本没有共识；就连AGI的明确定义都不存在。但马斯克仍以毫无依据的笃定不断发表宣言，而财经媒体持续放大这些言论，因为这能带来流量，也能在短期内提振特斯拉股价。对特斯拉股东而言，马斯克与其在X上大谈奇点，不如专注于扭转销量下滑、打造有竞争力的车型。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}