By Mackenzie Tatananni

Digital advertising company Trade Desk jumped Thursday following a report regarding a possible partnership with OpenAI. Investors should manage their expectations, according to a Wall Street analyst.

Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese downgraded the stock to Underperform to Neutral on Friday while maintaining a $23 price target. In her view, the incremental value of a possible deal doesn't warrant the current share price.

The company is in early talks with OpenAI concerning a partnership to help the ChatGPT maker sell ads, said a report from the Information. Trade Desk shares surged nearly 20% on Thursday as speculation mounted. The stock was paring back those gains on Friday, sliding 4.1% to $28.58.

While a partnership with one of the foremost AI developers would be "a vital long-term strategic move against AI search cannibalization," the price action Thursday overestimates near-term accretion, Reese asserted.

She noted that OpenAI boosted its 2027 consumer revenue target to $30 billion, largely tied to subscription scaling. Even under a scenario in which advertising reaches $1.2 billion in 2026 and $3.3 billion in 2027, "the net financial impact on TTD is negligible," the analyst wrote.

Moreover, Reese expects Trade Desk's share of OpenAI's advertising spending to decline over time. As OpenAI matures, anticipate it will inevitably build an in-house advertising software platform to capture the spend it currently cedes to third parties.

Moreover, as OpenAI opens its inventory to a broader array of advertising partners to maximize yield, Trade Desk's win rates will face natural compression, Reese wrote. "Consequently, we do not expect TTD's revenue to grow in lockstep with the growth of OpenAI's product."

Trade Desk told Barron's it doesn't comment on rumors and speculation.

A deal has yet to be announced, raising questions over whether the report is simply that. Guggenheim analysts noted Thursday that OpenAI has been talking to other ad tech firms publicly, citing a partnership with Criteo that was announced earlier this week.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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March 06, 2026 09:45 ET (14:45 GMT)

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