By Mackenzie Tatananni

Centene stock has lagged behind the broader market this year as health insurers and managed-care enterprises grapple with a shifting regulatory landscape. A business update on Tuesday only stirred up investors' concerns.

Speaking at the Barclays Global Healthcare Conference on Tuesday morning, Centene CEO Sarah London asserted that results for all three of the company's core business lines were on track for the year.

Still, there were no positive surprises. The company reaffirmed its adjusted earnings guidance of greater than $3 a share for 2026, which compares with the $3 consensus estimate among analysts polled by FactSet.

Other commentary centered around continued declines in Centene's Affordable Care Act marketplace. The company expects to end the first quarter with 3.5 million ACA enrollees, down from 5.5 million in December. As of February, Centene is at 3.6 million members, London said.

"Our view was that the market would shrink somewhere between the high teens and the mid-thirties," London added, referring to percentages. "We were pretty consistent in a view that we would be at the higher end of that and possibly higher than the top end of that."

She partly attributed the decline to pricing actions taken by Centene coming into the year and its strategic focus on margin improvement over membership growth.

London's remarks also addressed a continuing point of contention: The final rate decision by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which is expected no later than April 6. The Trump administration proposed earlier this year to keep Medicare rates roughly flat in 2027, triggering a protracted slide in shares of Centene and its peers.

"We gave comments to CMS on the Advance Rate Notice," London said. "We are hopeful the final rates will more accurately reflect the level of medical trend that the industry has seen over the last couple of years."

Meanwhile, Centene continues to forge ahead on its path to break-even for its Medicare Advantage business in 2027. Margins were negative in 2025 and are expected to be slightly below break-even this year, London said.

Counting Tuesday's losses, Centene stock has fallen 5.7% in 2026 against a 0.4% decline for the benchmark S&P 500. However, it has fared better than industry peers Molina Healthcare, Elevance Health, and UnitedHealth Group, which are down 17%, 18%, and 14% for the year, respectively.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com

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March 10, 2026 13:11 ET (17:11 GMT)

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