MW As Iran conflict and oil roil investors, here's the next line in the sand for the S&P 500

By Barbara Kollmeyer

Watch out below, say strategists

The Iran conflict and oil are calling the shots for the S&P 500 right now.

Consumer prices are in the spotlight for Wednesday, though these numbers might have limited utility given the surge in oil that's occurred since inflation was measured.

Oil and the Strait of Hormuz are calling the shots for stocks right now, as markets wait for news of a possible emergency oil release to calm markets.

Despite what's been a volatile period of news, the S&P 500 SPX has only declined 0.9% this year.

Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat, points to a daily chart of the Invesco QQQ Trust Series QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 NDX, that he said spells a picture of the choppy price action investors have endured in recent weeks. The QQQ will need a move back over 620, from Tuesday's close of 608, to get its uptrend back on track, while a move under 590 would flag a further selloff for stocks, he said.

Newton said investors should be watching if the S&P 500 SPX can surpass Tuesday's peak of 6,845. Markets will need to get past that to help any bounce for stocks, though he's not expecting a near-term push to new highs. If the market can get past 6,845, it can then get to 6,907 and then 6,952.

On the downside, a move below the December low of 6,717 would invite further selling pressure. In that case, Newton said traders would probably focus on November 2025 lows for the S&P 500 at 6,521.

Neil Wilson, strategist at Saxo Bank, said on the downside for the index, he's watching is Monday's low of 6,636. That marks "the first step" before 6,591, which is the 200-day simple moving average used to help confirm market direction, he said.

Breaking below that level opens the path to 6,500, which would be a 7.5% drop from all-time highs and mark the Oct. 10 intraday low when markets saw a big wobble on tariffs, said Wilson.

The markets

U.S. stock futures (ES00) (YM00) (NQ00) are meandering as oil prices (CL00) (CL.1) are up 6% to $88 a barrel. Gold (GC00) is down as the dollar DXY rises. German bunds BX:TMBMKDE-10Y are climbing after one European Central Bank official said the Iran conflict may spur an interest-rate hike.

   Key asset performance                                                Last       5d      1m      YTD     1y 
   S&P 500                                                              6781.48    -0.52%  -2.31%  -0.94%  21.70% 
   Nasdaq Composite                                                     22,697.10  0.80%   -1.75%  -2.34%  30.17% 
   10-year Treasury                                                     4.147      4.30    -3.00   -2.50   -16.80 
   Gold                                                                 5201.5     2.00%   3.04%   20.07%  77.96% 
   Oil                                                                  83.79      12.00%  30.51%  45.95%  25.77% 
   Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points 

The buzz

The International Energy Agency is reportedly close to proposing the largest-ever release of oil reserves.

A cargo vessel was hit and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing an evacuation by crew. President Donald Trump has warned Iran against laying mines in the Strait in Hormuz.

Consumer prices for February are due at 8:30 a.m.

For the first time in over 15 years, Oracle $(ORCL)$ reported at least 20% growth in revenue and earnings, thanks to AI demand, and shares are jumping.

More private-equity stress as JPMorgan reportedly tightens lending criteria, as a separate report says a $33 billion fund has suffered heavy withdrawals.

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The chart

The chart from CRU Group's Fertilizer Week shows how fertilizer prices have been climbing headed into the crucial spring planting season as the Iran conflict disrupts shipping. CRU, which provides market analysis and consulting for the global commodities industry, estimates shipping disruptions will last three weeks. They said around 47% of global surfur, 43% of urea and 27% of ammonia are at risk, in an X post.

Top tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:

   Ticker  Security name 
   NVDA    Nvidia 
   ORCL    Oracle 
   TSLA    Tesla 
   TSM     Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 
   GME     GameStop 
   NIO     NIO 
   PLTR    Palantir 
   MU      Micron 
   MSFT    Microsoft 
   AAPL    Apple 

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Beyond the newsroom

MarketWatch Picks: Here's exactly how many retirees had to 'un-retire' in the last 6 months - and how you can avoid the same fate

-Barbara Kollmeyer

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March 11, 2026 07:20 ET (11:20 GMT)

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