MW Rivian's stock is a buy ahead of a major EV launch, analyst says

By William Gavin

The company is preparing for the debut of its R2 SUV, a more affordable electric vehicle that could be a game changer

The Rivian R2 electric vehicle is expected to start at less than $50,000, which could make it more affordable than the company's premium R1T and R1S cars.

Rivian Automotive shares were rising Tuesday after an analyst suggested the carmaker's upcoming midsize SUV primes it to benefit from a likely upcoming resurgence in electric-vehicle demand.

Analysts expect the EV maker to debut its hotly anticipated R2 in the June quarter. In the past, Rivian (RIVN) has said the SUV could start at less than $50,000, making it more affordable than its premium offerings. Rivian has said it plans to provide additional pricing details on Thursday.

Last month, Rivian said it expects to sell between 62,000 and 67,000 EVs in 2026, compared with 42,247 vehicles in 2025.

Next year, deliveries could jump 162% over the low end of that forecast, according to bullish estimates from TD Cowen's Itay Michaeli.

Michaeli, who upgraded Rivian to a buy rating from hold on Tuesday, said R2 demand could eventually be between 212,000 and 335,000 annual deliveries. He also raised his price target to $20 per share from $17 per share, implying upside of more than 17% from current levels.

"We see a positive risk/reward in the shares heading into the R2 launch, as we believe the R2 checks all the right boxes to benefit from our thesis around a looming U.S. EV demand comeback," Michaeli said in a note to investors.

Rivian's stock climbed 7% in intraday action on Tuesday. However, it is still down roughly 14% this year.

The R2 will debut in a rough regulatory environment for EVs under a White House that has rolled back policies that encouraged selling and buying of electric cars. As a result, several automakers have pulled back on planned EV investments.

"To make its current outlook, Rivian will have to deliver the best mid-size EV launch since 2021 - without the benefit of tax credits or a mass-channel dealer network," D.A. Davidson analyst Michael Shlisky wrote in a note to investors last month. At the time, he downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral.

But the R2 will have an advantage that many rivals lack. Michaeli notes that the vehicle will be an early player in the market for Level 3 or 4 autonomous-driving hardware.

See: Rivian teases its AI future, but its stock drop shows Wall Street isn't impressed

The current leader in consumer autonomy, Tesla $(TSLA)$, offers Level 2 software, which requires a human driver's "active supervision," according to its website. The higher the level, the less a human driver actively controls the vehicle.

In December, Rivian unveiled a road map that outlined its plans to introduce hands-off, eyes-off driving; develop its own silicon processors; and launch an artificial-intelligence assistant. It also introduced a subscription package for its driver-assistance features.

"You can think about it as a vessel for all of our advanced technology," Rivian CFO Claire McDonough said of the R2 at a conference last week. "It's not just a vehicle program, but it's our next generation of electrical-architecture software."

See: Oil prices are surging. Will that help Tesla and others sell more EVs?

-William Gavin

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March 10, 2026 13:47 ET (17:47 GMT)

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