By Doug Busch

Silver prices slipped last week as oil supply shocks weighed on investor appetite for the precious metal. As borrowing costs climb and investors rotate toward yield-generating assets, the near-term outlook for silver remains under pressure.

Silver was one of the strongest performers in commodities markets last year, climbing more than 140% in 2025, its biggest annual gain in decades. But the iShares Silver Trust now trades 31% off its annual peak of $110, reached on Jan. 29 when the ETF touched $110 and registered a bearish hanging man candle. The last week of January saw enormous volatility on the ETF's largest-ever weekly volume, usually indicative of topping behavior. Indeed SLV dropped 19% on the week to close well into the lower half of its weekly range.

At its peak in late January, silver prices felt uncomfortable above the very round $100 number. That period produced bearish shooting star and back to back spinning tops, both of which reflect fatigue. The final session of the month, on Jan. 30, saw the historic drawdown of more than 30%. The metal made a spirited comeback, nearly reaching $100 again where a bearish engulfing candle was recorded on March 2.

Then came Iran. Last week silver undercut its 50 day simple moving average for the second time since mid February. These moves add up to a red flag as the 50-day SMA line served as very reliable support dating back to May. My thoughts now lean to a deeper pullback toward the upper $50s or lower $60s, which would be a haircut of almost 30% from current prices, before a potential double bottom base takes shape. Silver was trading around $84 Monday.

Examining silver's monthly chart, one can see how round number theory came into play, with a breakout above the very round $50 level in a 45-year (not a typo) bullish ascending triangle breakout.

Finally, silver bulls don't have history on their side. Note how white hot the monthly Relative Strength Index $(RSI)$ was in January 1980, at 98, and last month when it hit 93. In the first example, the Hunt brothers era saw silver reach $50.36 before RSI dropped to 50 in March 1980, with the price faltering to $10 and then grinding lower over the next decade to a low of $3.51 in February 1991. For the second example, the price hit $121.79 before dropping to $63.90, corresponding to a decline of 48% from the peak.

In fact, all four previous examples where the metal hit all-time highs and 20% corrections occurred, the result was peak to trough declines of almost 65%. That too would put the price of silver near my $55-$60 target.

Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.

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March 09, 2026 12:42 ET (16:42 GMT)

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