EMERGING MARKETS-Latam assets climb on Iran war de-escalation hopes

Reuters
03/10
EMERGING MARKETS-Latam assets climb on Iran war de-escalation hopes

Stocks gain 2.6%, FX rises 1.3%

Chile's peso, Argentina's stocks lead regional gains

S. Africa's economy grows slower than official forecasts

Argentina's Milei pitches to Wall Street

By Twesha Dikshit

March 10 (Reuters) - Latin American stocks and currencies advanced on Tuesday with markets optimistic about a resolution to the Middle East conflict that has roiled markets and sent oil prices soaring, following U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks.

Trump described the war as "very complete, pretty much", which caused the historical surge in oil prices to reverse. However, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they would not let any oil out of the region until U.S. and Israeli attacks cease.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday would be the most intense day of strikes against Tehran in the campaign so far.

Still, markets bought into the optimism of an end to a war that has disrupted energy supplies, affected supply chains and stoked inflation concerns.

The MSCI Latin American equities index .MILA00000PUS rose 2.6%, while a corresponding currencies index .MILA00000CUS added 1.3%.

Within EMs, commodity-heavy and oil-exporting Latam countries have fared better than their oil-dependent Asian and emerging Europe counterparts, but analysts said a shift to safe assets and concerns over global economic deterioration have weighed on the region.

"Emerging markets and recessions are not a good combination and if markets continue to get a bit more concerned about the broader global growth outlook we could see the dollar rally," said Timothy Chubb, chief investment officer for Girard, a Univest Financial Wealth Division.

"We're still comfortable maintaining that overweight (on EM) and benefiting from that earnings growth and dollar depreciation, but it will be a risk asset class that I expect if global growth concerns continue to intensify where we would see some more weakness."

STOCK INDEXES ACROSS REGIONS MOVE HIGHER

Most indexes moved higher with Chile's .SPIPSA gaining 1.7% while the peso CLP= added 2.3% against the greenback. Peru's benchmark index .MXNUAMPESCPGPE rose 1%.

Blue-chip indexes in Brazil .BVSP and Mexico .MXX were up over 1% each, while Argentina's .MERV rose 1.9%.

President Javier Milei was set to persuade investors that Argentina's economic turnaround can stay on track as part of an effort to convince financiers in New York that the country remained an attractive investment story.

Colombia's peso COP= ticked 0.8% higher. The left-leaning ruling party emerged from Sunday's elections as the strongest force, analysts said, but was unable to form an absolute majority.

Attention will turn next to Peru's presidential election in April, where two right-wing candidates lead, according to a poll, but most voters remain undecided or do not plan on voting.

Trump said Cuba was in "deep trouble" on a humanitarian basis and that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was dealing with the issue which may or may not be a "friendly takeover."

Elsewhere, official data showed South Africa's economy grew 1.1% in 2025, slower than the central bank and National Treasury forecasts. The benchmark stock index .JTOPI added 2.5%.

Emerging Europe stocks were higher with those in Turkey .XU100 and Greece .ATG gaining over 3%, each.

Meanwhile, S&P Global said Central and Eastern Europe has become more resilient to energy supply shocks following efforts to diversify sources since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1446 GMT:

Stock indexes

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1505.48

3.5

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

3102.65

2.55

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

183157.84

1.24

Mexico IPC .MXX

67637.71

1.12

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

10605.35

1.69

Argentina MerVal .MERV

2682770.68

1.9

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

2250.28

1.11

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.1515

0.17

Mexico peso MXN=

17.5065

0.52

Chile peso CLP=

889.7

2.32

Colombia peso COP=

3710.75

0.84

Peru sol PEN=

3.4381

1.42

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1,405.0

0.78

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1,400.0

1.75

(Reporting by Twesha Dikshit; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

((Twesha.Dikshit@thomsonreuters.com;))

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