By Sabrina Escobar

Mixed Message. A head-spinning session ended with more of a whimper than a bang on Tuesday.

Markets whipsawed between losses and gains, finally settling at about break-even by the end of the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 34 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 was down 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite was essentially flat.

Investors were reacting real-time to the mixed messaging on the war in Iran. There was a now-deleted post from U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright that said the U.S. Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, which was then walked back, and a report that said there were indications Iran was taking steps to deploy mines in the strait.

Oil prices were also guiding the market. A retreat from Monday's peak -- which saw crude prices exceed $100 a barrel -- helped fuel the midday stock rally, and prevent steeper losses later in the day. Brent crude futures settled at $87.80 a barrel, down 11.3%, the largest percentage decline since March 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Despite that decline, Tuesday marked the third highest settling price this year, with crude futures up 44% year to date.

Surprisingly, oil stocks haven't gained much on the war-driven increase in oil pricing, upending the common belief that both rise in tandem. The five biggest oil companies -- Exxon Mobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, BP, and Shell -- are up a little more than 1%, on average, since the war started, notes my colleague Avi Salzman.

"The Iran war has upended a number of assumptions, including how the stock market might react to an unprecedented series of events in energy markets," Avi writes. He highlights several reasons the stocks aren't moving, including that the companies themselves are vulnerable to disruptions from the war and that investors had already driven up the price of oil stocks before the war began.

Most investors are staying away from buying more shares because a sudden end to the war could cause prices to fall back, Avi adds. Past oil shocks have often resolved within a few months, and buying now means that markets believe the current conflict will snarl the oil industry longer than usual.

We'll see if history repeats itself.

The Hot Stock: Vertex Pharmaceuticals +8.3% The Biggest Loser: Centene -16%

Best Sector: Consumer Discretionary +1.2% Worst Sector: Utilities -1.2%

Like Oil and Water

Tomorrow's inflation data may finally shift the market's attention away from geopolitics -- at least for a couple of hours.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release February's reading of the consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday. Economists polled by FactSet expect that consumer prices ticked up by 0.3% from January, accelerating from the prior month's 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, inflation is projected to measure 2.5%, up from 2.4% in January. Core inflation, which strips out energy and food costs, is also expected to be up 2.5% from a year ago.

Higher prices for food and energy, coupled with ongoing tariff pass-throughs, are expected to drive up the headline figure, while softer vehicle prices and cooling shelter inflation could offset some of those impacts, writes my colleague Megan Leonhardt. All in all, the reading should help Federal Reserve officials justify keeping interest rates steady at their March policy meeting.

March's inflation data is going to be a harder pill to swallow, as it will reflect the effects of the war with Iran. Gasoline prices are up more than 20% compared with a month ago, which will likely drive energy and transportation prices higher and in turn boost inflation.

Fed officials will likely look past the oil shock effects, Megan writes, but there's plenty of other factors complicating projections and policymaking.

"They still are wrangling the underlying pass-through effects of higher tariffs, sticky services inflation, and a potentially distorted housing inflation rate," Megan writes. "As a result, economists warn that inflation has not yet been tamed -- even as the labor market continues to waver. That all adds up to a big headache for Fed officials."

The bigger risk is that the spike in oil prices will push consumer's inflation expectations higher, which in turn could lead to real, sustained price increases across the board. So far, long-term inflation expectations have been well-anchored, but the economic aftershocks of the war could push them higher.

"That's almost certainly a bigger concern for the Fed than any short-term -- or forgive the expression, 'transient' -- inflation caused by costly oil," writes Joe Mazzola, head trading and derivatives strategist at Charles Schwab.

The Calendar

Campbell's and UiPath report earnings tomorrow.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for February.

What We're Reading Today

   -- Nvidia GTC Is Coming. What It Means for the Stock. 
 
   -- BioNTech Reports Earnings. That's Not Why the Stock Is Down 21%. 
 
   -- Apple's Budget MacBook Is a Hit. What It Means For the Stock, and What's 
      Next. 
 
   -- Everyone Thinks Iran Will Be Another Forever War -- Except Defense Stocks 

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March 10, 2026 19:55 ET (23:55 GMT)

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