Match Group (MTCH) is focusing on improving Tinder engagement and retention in 2026 to lay the foundation for revenue growth in 2027 and later, but RBC Capital Markets cautioned that the strategy is still early-stage and unproven across broader markets.

Tinder is focusing first on getting users to spend more time on the app, have better conversations, and feel safer using the platform before pushing harder on paid features, the investment firm said in a note Thursday.

RBC said early signs were positive, including increases in message exchanges, solid adoption of new features among younger users and encouraging results in test markets.

The main risk is that Tinder's progress still looks early, which could delay the turnaround again if engagement improves in small tests but fails to hold at a broader scale, according to the note.

RBC has an outperform rating and $37 price target on Match, noting faster product launches and increased use of generative AI.

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