The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0835 GMT - Eyes will be on the Aussie dollar Tuesday as the RBA steps up to the plate to make what many expect will be another rate hike, which would offer the currency some support. A 25bp interest rate increase is about 70% priced, but ING's Asia team thinks it may be too early for that, suggesting the Aussie dollar faces some downside risk tomorrow. Maybank analysts don't rule out a hike, citing Deputy Gov. Hauser's hawkish remarks on inflation. "We now see a chance of two more hikes (including the next one) as RBA remains committed to stem price pressure." Medium-term underpinnings for the Aussie currency persist too, including RBA divergence from the Fed and demand for commodities given Australia's role as a producer of LNG. The Aussie dollar was last at $0.7017. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0828 GMT - China's January-February activity data suggest growth accelerated at the start of the year, supported by strong exports and rising domestic demand, Capital Economics says in a note. China economist Zichun Huang says the country is better placed than most economies to weather the fallout from the Iran conflict, though the 2026 budget indicates fiscal policy may offer less support than in 2025, potentially weighing on growth later this year. CE estimates China's fixed investment has improved significantly in real terms. Industrial production remains a bright spot amid strong external demand. The services sector has also improved as better job market conditions likely lifted consumer sentiment. However, the property market remains weak, with falling sales volumes and home prices likely to weigh on growth in the medium term. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

0814 GMT - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates at its March 17-18 meeting with a minority dissent in favor of a cut, says Michael Krautzberger, CIO Public Markets at Allianz Global Investors. Fed Chair Powell is expected to reaffirm a wait-and-see stance, citing low near-term visibility but continued medium-term optimism from AI- and productivity-driven supply gains, he says in commentary. The Fed may slightly temper its December Goldilocks scenario of robust growth, improving labor markets and declining inflation, he says. Allianz's base case remains for a final rate cut under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh in the 2H, with risks skewed toward no easing unless the economy or labor market weakens materially, he adds. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

0754 GMT - China's recent economy data suggests a good start to the year, according to UOB economist's Ho Woei Chen in a research note. China's economy broadly strengthened in January-February, they point out. "While growth continues to be driven by robust industrial production, marginally stronger-than-expected retail sales and a surprise turnaround in fixed assets investment injected some optimism to China's outlook," she says. While the ongoing war in the Middle East may start to weigh on the outlook in the coming months, a good start to the year provides a cushion against the uncertainties, she says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0751 GMT - Gold prices fall 1% in early trading, as rising energy prices raise concerns around U.S. interest-rate cuts and support the dollar. This week, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady for a second straight meeting, though markets will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for cues on the path forward. The international oil benchmark, Brent crude, remains above $100 a barrel, stoking inflation fears and dampening hopes for further rate cuts. In early trading, gold futures in New York are down 1% to $5,009.90 a troy ounce. Silver, meanwhile, is down 2.6% to $79.22 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0748 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields are little changed in early trade. Financial markets remain mostly driven by the Middle East crisis but central bank meetings, including that of the European Central Bank this week, will also get attention. Investors are waiting to see how central banks assess the war in the Middle East, especially rising energy prices. The 10-year German Bund yield is up 0.4 basis points at 2.975%, while the 10-year Italian BTP yield is down 0.7 basis points at 3.780%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0735 GMT - Uncertainty in energy supply due to oil transport disruptions in the Middle East are likely to expose the euro to weakness versus the dollar, Danske Bank's Filip Andersson says in a note. "Energy supply uncertainty could well prolong even further," the co-head of fixed income and FX research says in a note. As long as this continues, Danske sees risks of the euro declining even further versus the dollar. The oil market is likely concerned about the U.S. attacks on Kharg Island in Iran and Iran's attacks on Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, with both key points for the oil market, he says. The euro last edges up 0.1% at $1.1430, having earlier hit $1.1410 which matched Friday's 7.5-month low. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0733 GMT - The spring selling season for the U.K. house market seems to have started, but it might be short-lived, RBC Capital Markets analysts Anthony Codling and Oliver Dyson say in a note. The outlook for mortgage rates is less favorable than it was a couple of weeks ago and homebuyers are starting to feel the pinch of rising oil prices, the analysts say. If less houses are built the government could affect supply by launching a housing demand stimulus program, they say. "As geopolitical uncertainty rises so does the likelihood that the government steps in to help those who would like to buy," the analysts say. (anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)

0733 GMT - China's economy has yet to recover despite stronger-than-expected January-February activity data, Nomura chief China economist Ting Lu says in a note. He says the rebound was driven by factors that are clearly unsustainable, including the exceptionally strong export growth of 21.8%. The economic data was also supported by the delayed effects of the government's trade-in program and the timing of this year's Lunar New Year holiday, which was later, warmer and longer, boosting activity in the catering sector. Meanwhile, Lu says the property market continues to decline rapidly, with new home sales among the top 100 developers still deeply negative. Passenger car sales and total auto sales also declined further. Nomura expects major activity indicators to weaken over the coming months.(jason.chau@wsj.com)

0726 GMT - Malaysia's tourism target for this year could be pressured by escalating Middle East tensions, TA Securities analysts say in a note. The country's tourism campaign aims to attract 47 million arrivals and generate 329 billion ringgit in receipts. Visitors from Middle Eastern countries account for only about 0.4% of arrivals, but disruptions to key transit hubs could curb long-haul travel from Europe and other high-spending markets, potentially causing a shortfall of 2-3 million visitors. However, strong regional demand from Asia and resilient domestic tourism should provide some support, they say. Tourism could boost destination malls and hospitality assets such as Sunway REIT, CapitaLand Malaysia Trust and IOI Properties, while food-and-beverage players including Farm Fresh, Fraser & Neave and SDS Group may also benefit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0722 GMT - The dollar is little changed in early European trade, staying close to its highest in more than nine months hit on Friday. The U.S. currency remains in demand as Brent crude trades at over $105 per barrel, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed. The U.S. attacked Iran's Kharg Island, a key point for Iran's oil industry, and Iran attacked the oil port in Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. "The global demand for the liquidity and the (perceived) safety of the dollar doesn't break," DZ Bank Research's Dorothea Huttanus says in a note. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 100.342, having hit a high of 100.54 on Friday. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0655 GMT - Global food prices haven't risen much amid the Middle East turmoil, but they could climb after a lag if the conflict persists, Morgan Stanley economists say. So far, food prices are up about 6% since Feb. 26, versus an over-40% rise in oil and fertilizers. But food production is linked to fuel and fertilizers, and the key inputs will eventually pass through. Asia economies like Philippines, Thailand, India and Indonesia are most exposed to food inflation risks, MS says. As these central banks also target headline inflation, MS sees risks to the rate cuts in its base case for Indonesia and Philippines. If disruptions last, there could be rate hikes in India and Philippines. In terms of output, agriculture is 17% of India's GDP, 13% of Indonesia's and 9% of Thailand's. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 16, 2026 04:35 ET (08:35 GMT)

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