MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
ECB decision; U.K. unemployment, BOE decision; trading updates from Vonovia, Enel
Opening Call:
European stock futures fell early Thursday. Asian stock benchmarks fell; the dollar is flat; Treasury yields mostly edged higher; oil rose and gold fell.
Equities:
Stock futures point to a lower open in European markets on Thursday as oil advanced following attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Escalating attacks on Persian Gulf oil-and-gas infrastructure are sending the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran into a dangerous new phase that threatens to worsen the crisis over global energy supplies.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is likely to follow the Federal Reserve's lead in holding interest rates steady.
The Bank of England, Sweden's Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank are also all expected to hold interest rates steady later Thursday. The Bank of Japan kept policy settings steady earlier in the day.
Forex:
The Fed's hawkish stance has offered a temporary anchor for the U.S. dollar, but DBS's Philip Wee said this may not mark a definitive trend, given markets' tendency to oscillate from event to event amid geopolitical uncertainty.
"Markets will be looking to today's central bank meetings in Europe to confirm pricing for the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank to hike before the Fed," Wee added.
Bonds:
The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields narrowed to 51.5 basis points overnight, from roughly 53 basis points on Tuesday. The gap had been as wide as 74 basis points in early February.
The flattening "is clearly an indication of the market's more guarded outlook for Fed policy, and raises the concern of stagflation," said Gary Schlossberg, a global strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. "But we are of the view that this will not be the stagflation of the 1970s. The risk of elevated inflation and weak economic growth has gone up, but we believe any such combination will be short-lived."
Energy:
Oil rose early Thursday following attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Iran has "cranked up the war rhetoric," warning regional oil and gas infrastructure facilities are now 'legitimate targets,' NAB's Gavin Friend said.
This highlights a shift from temporary disruptions to more lasting capacity destruction, impairing the production and passage of oil and gas, said Vishnu Varathan at Mizuho Securities.
Metals:
Gold rose in Asia after front-month gold futures settled 2.2% lower overnight. While the Fed left rates unchanged as widely expected, the decision reinforces its strategy of waiting for greater clarity before adjusting the trajectory of rates, XS.com's Antonio Di Giacomo said.
"On the one hand, there is room for monetary easing," the senior market analyst said. "On the other, risks related to oil prices and geopolitics limit the pace and magnitude of any rate cuts."
-
The aluminum market remains unsettled by the Middle East conflict, with traders still assessing the impact on supply flows and demand prospects, ANZ said.
Some producers are scaling back operations or suspending exports as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to shipping. "Most aluminum smelters only hold a few weeks' supply of alumina, which could further tighten availability."
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Escalating Attacks on Gulf Energy Assets Plunge Iran War Into New Phase
Escalating attacks on Persian Gulf oil-and-gas infrastructure are sending the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran into a dangerous new phase that threatens to worsen the crisis over global energy supplies.
Israel struck at the crown jewel of Iran's energy industry on Wednesday-the giant South Pars gas field that Iran shares with Qatar and is by far the largest in the world. Iran retaliated with two attacks on a major gas hub in Qatar just across the Gulf and a missile barrage fired at the Saudi capital, Riyadh, with debris landing near a refinery.
Trump Wants Powell Out. Powell Is Digging In.
President Trump has spent months talking about how badly he wants Chair Jerome Powell out of the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, Powell signaled that the administration's own actions have had the opposite effect: He's prepared to stay longer than he otherwise would have.
At a news conference, Powell said he had "no intention of leaving" the Fed until a Justice Department investigation of him is "well and truly over, with transparency and finality."
Fed Holds Rates Steady as Iran War Clouds Outlook
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday and tentatively preserved a path to cutting rates this year as higher energy prices from the Iran war threaten to prolong their yearslong inflation fight.
But at a news conference after the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said little to suggest cuts were around the corner and instead emphasized how little room officials might have to ease. He described the Fed's current policy stance as sitting much closer to one that neither spurs nor slows growth, which would make rate reductions much harder to justify unless the economy weakens.
Iran's Caused a Rates Crisis for the World's Central Banks. Why the ECB Should Follow the Fed.
Just when Europe's central bankers thought they had finally overcome stubborn inflation, the war in Iran sparked an oil rally that means the continent's policymakers are once again fretting about price pressures.
In a week when the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked interest rates but the Federal Reserve held them steady, the European Central Bank and its peers are likely to follow the Fed's lead.
Russia's Shadow-Fleet Kingpin Is Back in Business
Etibar Eyyub is back in business.
Moscow's shadow-fleet kingpin and premier oil trader was reeling until President Trump attacked Iran. Eyyub's tankers had been boarded by French soldiers and attacked by Ukrainian drones.
Apple Is Way Behind in AI-and Still Making a Fortune From It
Apple is on pace to surpass $1 billion in artificial-intelligence revenue this year, a tidy sum that demonstrates the company's AI advantage even as it struggles to deliver an AI strategy of its own.
Its Siri chatbot is still weak by modern AI standards. What Apple does have that the other AI players don't is a dominant position making devices. However fancy OpenAI, Google, Anthropic and xAI make their chatbots, iPhones are still a primary way to deliver them to consumers.
Micron Sales Nearly Triple Amid Tight Memory Supply
Micron Technology's second-quarter revenue nearly tripled as AI-related demand for memory is outpacing supply.
The memory-chip maker said Wednesday it is ramping up spending on memory capacity and that it sees no signs of the supply-demand imbalance subsiding. AI developers are hungry for memory storage because it allows models and agents to retain information and learn from past experiences.
Big Banks' Wealth Units Tell Janus Henderson to Reject Victory Deal
Janus Henderson clients and investment staff are urging the money manager to reject a takeover bid from Victory Capital Management in favor of a lower-priced deal from Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst.
Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Thursday
05:30/NED: Feb Unemployment
07:00/UK: Feb UK monthly unemployment figures
07:00/SWE: 4Q Financial accounts
07:00/SWI: Feb Trade Balance
08:30/SWI: Swiss National Bank monetary policy assessment
08:30/SWE: Swedish repo rate announcement
09:00/POL: Feb Average gross wages
09:00/POL: Feb Industrial Production Index
09:00/POL: Feb PPI
10:00/CYP: Feb Harmonised CPI
10:00/EU: 4Q Labour Cost Index
10:00/EU: Jan Construction output
11:00/IRL: Jan Goods Exports and Imports
12:00/UK: UK interest rate decision
12:00/UK: Agents' Summary of Business Conditions
13:15/EU: ECB interest rate announcement
13:30/CZE: Czech interest rate decision
All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.
Write to us at newsletters@dowjones.com
We offer an enhanced version of this briefing that is optimized for viewing on mobile devices and sent directly to your email inbox. If you would like to sign up, please go to https://newsplus.wsj.com/subscriptions.
This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 19, 2026 01:03 ET (05:03 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.